Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,894 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today, as we get back to action on NHL futures.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 28–20, we’re up 5.32 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –111). It’s been a good start to the year, but there’s a lot of year to go.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Cleveland @ Chicago (AL)
Peyton Battenfield hasn’t been great this year. He gives up a lot of hard contact, for example. He’s been about as good as he was expected to be, though, so the market is probably valuing him accurately. We’re less convinced in the market’s evaluation of Mike Clevinger, and of the White Sox bullpen with the recently injured Joe Kelly both 1) very valuable and 2) having pitched last night.
Pick: Cleveland to win +123. Low confidence. (Battenfield and Clevinger must start.)
NL Central
This is a tricky spot for our portfolio. There’s better value on the Cardinals, and entering today the Cardinals were only a 0.5-unit profit scenario for us within this market. We don’t like flipping scenarios to negative. Overall, though, the Brewers are a worse outcome for us than the Cardinals (we have big upside on the Cubs and huge upside on the Pirates), and we’re trying to raise our overall baseline across all six divisions, even if that means sacrificing a little bit of value. We’re still early in the year, but after the first month or so, it’s time to make sure we’ve got our back covered. Once that’s the case, we can focus more on building high-value scenarios.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –150. Medium confidence.
AL Central
The alternative here for us is Tampa Bay, who shows comparable value and is also a division favorite, raising that specific baseline. We’re more vulnerable on the Blue Jays than we are on the Guardians, though, so it’s the Twins who get the nod. Especially with the Twins narrowly besting the Rays on both value and probability right now.
Pick: Minnesota to win –250. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
We continue to like the value the market’s presenting on the Celtics to win it all, and we don’t expect it to necessarily last. This hurts our Nuggets position, but the Celtics/Lakers scenario is so bad for us that we can’t really worry about the Nuggets right now, especially with the Celtics holding a 55% implied conditional win probability in the Finals (should they make it) and the Nuggets only at 50%, implying the Celtics might be a slight favorite in that matchup if it happens, making a position on them easier to hedge out of.
Pick: Boston to win +110. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
We’re in a little bit of a holding pattern on our NHL Futures, waiting for the Panthers to hopefully grab one of the first two games over Carolina and reset the odds on that series. In the West, we’re in better immediate shape on the Knights, but we do have a Stars future to win the Stanley Cup at 14-to-1 which creates some flexibility. In the absence of a clear opportunity to get ourselves to safety, we’ll focus on amassing value. Right now, this is the best way we see to do that.
Pick: Vegas to win +250. Low confidence.
