Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,364 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 37–39 so far, down 5.38 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we went cold again. We pivoted a little last week, and results have been narrowly profitable since. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come, but it’s not good when you need to say “hopefully” about a betting market.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Washington @ Chicago (AL)
Overshadowed by the totality of the White Sox experience is the fact that at 25, healthy and out of the bullpen, Garrett Crochet is having a breakout year. His 4.63 ERA obscures a 3.33 FIP and a ridiculous 2.15 xERA. He leads qualified pitchers in strikeouts per inning. He’s in the top quartile in walks per inning. The guy is a little bit of funky home run luck away from being an early Cy Young candidate. He should get the Sox the series win today, especially since their bullpen was already fairly replacement-level even before the doubleheader yesterday. As we’ll get into with the Rangers and Astros picks below, some teams have more to miss when their bullpen’s tired.
Pick: Chicago to win –163. Low confidence. (Corbin and Crochet must start.)
Colorado @ San Diego
Speaking of funky home run luck, Michael King has a 5.05 FIP and a 3.89 xFIP. xFIP’s different from xERA—the latter is about quality of contact, while the former is FIP but if a pitcher’s home run/fly ball ratio were average. King’s xERA is a little troubling—it’s at 4.24, implying not all of the home runs were unlucky—but he now hasn’t allowed a dinger in two straight starts, and eight of the home runs he’s allowed came against the Dodgers, against the Phillies, or at Coors Field. We don’t think he’s an active red flag, and in the absence of that, we see San Diego fending off the sweep attempt.
Pick: San Diego to win –241. Low confidence. (Gomber and King must start.)
New York (AL) @ Minnesota
The concern here is rain. It’s supposed to get a little stormy in Minneapolis, potentially as early as the later innings. If you want to check the five-inning line, go for it. We’d probably do that if we weren’t tied to the simplicity of our moneyline approach. Pablo López is outperforming his high expectations. Marcus Stroman is experiencing some regression.
Pick: Minnesota to win –133. Low confidence. (Stroman and López must start.)
Cleveland @ Texas
The Rangers had to go to their bullpen early last night, Jack Leiter struggling again. They should still have less value burned than the Guards, though, making that piece not a concern to us. It’s not about how many innings the bullpen through. It’s about how valuable the pieces are who should be unavailable or not quite at their best.
Pick: Texas to win –158. Low confidence. (Carrasco and Gray must start.)
Oakland @ Houston
Similar story here regarding the Houston bullpen after Ronel Blanco’s ejection for sticky stuff. Mason Miller’s probable absence after throwing two innings is worth far more than Josh Hader’s. We’re a little worried by Framber Valdez not being as good as normal to start the year, but the guy still has a 3.67 FIP. On the other side of the innings, the Astros’ lineup has been the fourth-best in baseball over the last ten days. The comeback might be underway.
Pick: Houston to win –235. Low confidence. (Brooks and Valdez must start.)
NL West
We’re going boring today. The value’s there, it’s almost never there on the Dodgers, and we’re not too good for a 7% return.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –1400. Medium confidence. x2
NBA Finals
We have a strong enough balance in the Nuggets/Celtics matchup scenario that we can afford to take a little shot. We still don’t fully believe in the Thunder’s capacity to win it all, but we think the makeup concerns about the Celtics are legitimate, and the Nuggets’ resurrection still leaves unanswered questions. In short, we really like this value, even if we acknowledge that it’s a big longshot.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +900. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
This is only barely a positive-value play, but between the Bruins being undervalued and probably some undervaluing of Carolina’s hypothetical home-ice advantage next round (yes, even against the Panthers), there is that shred of value. This makes the Canes almost as high-upside of a scenario for us as the Rangers. We’d prefer the Rangers were through on their own, but this raises our worst-case scenario a good distance.
Pick: Carolina to win +1000. Low confidence.
