Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,838 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo missed its under again yesterday, though it did hit its second choice, which is always a little rough. Two wins away from being back even on the postseason, with totals still positive. Another one today, more futures (for those, we’re aiming to invest 100 units in total but we have another 100 set aside in case we need it), and more MLB futures as well (520 units set to be invested over the regular season on those, with an additional 520 in reserve for October and hedging).
Pittsburgh @ New York Rangers
The market’s a little split on this, but not enough for arbitrage at the moment unless you have access to a lot of books and you’re seeing something I’m not seeing (it would be extremely surprising for arbitrage to be available on something as prominent as an NHL playoff game).
Part of why our approach with Gelo leads us to picking Under 6.5 in so many games is that even totals are roughly 50% less common than odd totals, and we’re just looking at the pure gap between Gelo’s projected total and the line. So, take this with that caveat. Again, though, we’re still positive on totals, so we’ll keep riding for the moment. A good offseason addition would be adding a published probability distribution for each game’s score, but…we’ll see if we can make that happen.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
The value here isn’t great, but the probability is high, especially with the Canes one win away from getting through to the conference semifinals. The Capitals taking out the Panthers would have us floating, but in case they don’t, this is a good little insurance policy, especially with that Bruins Stanley Cup future still floating around.
Pick: Carolina to win +400. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
The Blues won last night, contrary to what the market—which is treating both the Blues and the Wild as being down 3-2—is implying. I know Gelo’s low on the Avalanche, but the odds on the Blues today are long enough that hedging from them should be pretty possible. As in the East, one of the favorites going down (in this case, the Flames) would help a lot, but if we keep building our wall of the Wild, Blues, Oilers, Kings, and Stars, we should be ready for the Avalanche if it comes.
Pick: St. Louis to win +1800. Low confidence.
NL Central
Running this back again today, and in the process getting to a spot where chalk division winners (Astros, White Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets) would leave us profitable in division markets as a whole. Upside still on the Twins, Padres, and Giants, with other little complexities elsewhere, but we’re in a good spot, and as of now, Milwaukee is our anchor for that.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -300. Medium confidence.
