Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,875 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where we stand in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 27–14, we’re up 10.78 units, we’re up 26% (the average line on our winners has been –109). We got the win yesterday, and we’re trying to build off that to make this a good week.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 4.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
San Diego @ Minnesota
Pablo López is a great starting pitcher, but the thing about the Twins right now is that they’re getting great starting pitching all the time. 24 of their 36 games have been started by a pitcher with a FIP below 3.00. The weighted average of their starting pitchers’ FIPs (weighted by starts) is 3.26. That’s obscene, and it’s not much worse than López’s 2.99. The Twins are overvalued here.
Pick: San Diego to win +115. Low confidence (Lugo and López must start.)
World Series
I can’t remember a time there was this much value consistently available on the World Series favorite. I haven’t been doing this forever, and I may be forgetting something obvious, but Atlanta is so much better than the rest of the National League, a raw 94-win team on paper while the Padres and Dodgers sit at 89 and 88. Even in the AL, no one is better than a 90-win team on paper. Atlanta is so, so good.
So, we’ll keep stacking up upside on them so long as it’s available. It doesn’t hurt that they’re up eight games on the Mets and Phillies.
Pick: Atlanta to win +500. Medium confidence.
NL East
Speaking of the Mets and Phillies, Atlanta is going to win the NL East. This is only an 18% return, but that does something for us, especially with the division portion of our portfolio longshot-heavy, with the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Pirates all in there at 40-to-1 or longer.
Pick: Atlanta to win –550. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
It’s difficult to resist the temptation to hedge. Our portfolio is heavy on the Nuggets, Heat, Warriors, and Sixers, and three of those teams are one win away from securing a spot in their respective Conference Finals, each with multiple chances to get that win. Even the Lakers are only a half-unit net loss right now in our Western Conference assortment, and just a 7-unit loss in the Finals. So, we have this temptation to lock in value, and we even think that temptation is smart, going back to what a hedge fund analyst and friend once told us about Bitcoin: “If you don’t confidently understand an investment and you can get a huge return by cashing out, cash out.”
We aren’t confident in our NBA futures approach. This is our first time doing an NBA futures portfolio. Cashing out would be a good idea. But right now, there’s no direct way to lock in a profit, and at least three of our teams getting through remains likelier than none, one, or two. We’re going to keep stacking bricks today and see what this evening brings. Hopefully it’s a Warriors lifeline and the Heat closing the door.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +350. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
We have some work to do on our Eastern Conference assortment. We have two dead units on the Bruins, and we have one that might be dead on the Devils, and we have two on the Panthers at +450 and +200, respectively. Adding this doesn’t get us to a great spot, but it does get us to a scenario where if the Panthers win the East, we net 4.8 units, and if they lose it we net –6.0. That’s something we can almost hedge out of if we need to. Honestly? A Leafs win tonight might help us, creating an opportunity to build more upside on the Panthers even if it introduces some new Leafs risk.
Pick: Florida to win +130. Low confidence.
