Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,965 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just two markets today. We’re going ‘no bet’ with both the NBA and NHL futures portfolios. With last night’s MLB moneyline loss, we no longer have an NBA/NHL combo scenario that leaves us profitable, so we’re going to try to get back above that hypothetical even line while seeing whether the Heat can get us more leverage tonight.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 39–30, we’re up 4.16 units, we’re up 6% (the average line on our winners has been –114). April was great, May was bad, June is young.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
Kansas City @ Miami
Jordan Lyles had a nice outing his last time out.
But.
He’s had a rough season, the outing was only five innings, he did allow a home run, and Edward Cabrera’s last start was better. This is one where the Marlins should take care of business and at the very least hang within those three games of Atlanta in the division.
Pick: Miami to win –172. Low confidence. (Lyles and Cabrera must start.)
NL Central
I don’t know what’s going on with this particular market today, but the value available is nearly arbitrage. We’d like to have more on the Brewers than we do, but if the value sticks around tomorrow, we’ll be in comfortable enough shape on them as well. With St. Louis: This removes any concern we had about our Cardinals position, leaving us effectively just fading the Reds, the best option to fade.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –130. Medium confidence.
Pick: St. Louis to win +700. Medium confidence.
