Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,443 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 56–56 so far, down 7.18 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. That said, we went 6–1 last night.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 22.20 units so far, but as with the NBA portfolio, we’ll profit if our portfolio’s preferred champion—in this case, the Panthers—wins.
San Francisco @ Arizona
We don’t trust the Giants at all, but we do think Jordan Hicks’s last start was more about him facing the Yankees than him pitching badly. Also, we aren’t sold on Jordan Montgomery’s issues quickly going away. He was so, so good when it counted last year, but that was him at his best. He’s not a guy who’s routinely been at his best. We’ll take the Giants as a slight underdog to avoid the sweep.
Pick: San Francisco to win +102. Low confidence. (Hicks and Montgomery must start.)
ALCS
There’s some value available on the Mariners today for the first time in a while, and with the Mariners an unprofitable ALCS scenario for us, we’re pouncing on it. We do still wonder if there’s something special that goes on in Seattle in July and August. Curious if they’ll get hot again this year. Even if they don’t, though, they’re in a fine place, mostly thanks to the struggles of the Rangers and Astros.
Pick: Seattle to win +750. Medium confidence.
World Series
This is such a longshot, but that’s how these portfolios work. I will say: If Paul Skenes and Jared Jones are what they appear to be, the Pirates are built disproportionately well for October.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +25000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
Today’s update: Our portfolio is now effectively a 37.83-unit bet on the Celtics, one which pays only 5.13 units.
Pick: Boston to win –210. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Today’s update: Our portfolio is now effectively a 56.20-unit bet on the Panthers, one which pays only 2.87 units.
Pick: Florida to win –135. Low confidence.
