Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,085 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, more hockey. For context: The MLB futures portfolio started at the beginning of the regular season with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging. The NHL futures portfolio started at the beginning of the playoffs with 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case we needed them for hedging (which we did).
Colorado @ Tampa Bay
Gelo doesn’t like either side on the moneyline, viewing the game as nearly a perfect tossup. So, it’s just the total again, with our model favoring the over, viewing this as a 6.25-goal game.
Pick: Over 6 (+101). Low confidence.
Game 4: Colorado @ Tampa Bay (futures portfolio)
On the futures side, we enter the day set for a 62.75-unit loss should Colorado win the Cup and a 114.35-unit profit should Tampa Bay win, with 137.25 units in the bankroll. If we continue our strategy of betting on the Avalanche to win, an betting whatever fraction of the liability we would need to continue to make up (a quarter when they had four games left to win, a third when they had three games left to win, half now that they have two games left to win), our scenarios become either a +146.08/-31.02 scenario between the Lightning/Avalanche, with 168.98 in the bankroll and the Avs up 3-1, or a +81.35/-95.75 scenario, with 104.25 in the bankroll and the series tied 2-2. The bad scenario there is bad. The Avalanche won’t be a series underdog no matter how badly they might lose tonight. The good scenario is good. We wouldn’t have the market cornered, but with one more hedge, we’d have a route to profitability that required the Avs to just win a home game in which they’d be a moderate favorite.
The question, then, is whether the good scenario outweighs the bad, but the other question is what alternative we have. A bet on the Avalanche to win the series, at this point, would even at its most aggressive leave us not profiting in any scenario, and our current liability on the Avalanche is intolerably large for an experimental effort like this one. So, 33 units on the Avalanche to win tonight. Should they lose, we’re in trouble, but we can at least hedge to minimize losses at that point, and should they win, we will like where we find ourselves.
Pick: Colorado to win -104. Low confidence. x33
AL East
This is a bit of a silly bet, with only an 8.3% potential return and that not due for another three months, but in the realm of our futures portfolio, this anchoring helps us limit our losses in scenarios in which the White Sox, Dodgers, and Mets win their divisions. With these in the fold, the chalkiest scenario—Yankees/White Sox/Astros/Mets/Brewers/Dodgers—now gives us only a 3.1% loss on what we’ve invested on this kind of play, with upside in four of those six divisions (all but the NL Central and AL West) making it likelier than not that we do profit on this division portion of the portfolio. Our ideal scenario that’s fairly realistic? San Diego wins the NL West, Milwaukee wins the NL Central, Atlanta wins the NL East, Houston wins the AL West, Minnesota wins the AL Central, and New York wins the AL East. That would leave us more than 40% profitable on what we’ve invested here so far.
Pick: New York to win -1200. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win -1200. Medium confidence.
