Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,504 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines and futures. That is all. We’re continuing to let the NHL portfolio ride for now. Last night hurt, though. (We effectively have a 59.20-unit bet on the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, and it only pays 5.05 units. This is the culmination of our NHL futures effort so far.)
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 74–69 so far, down 6.31 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. To pick a selective sample, though, we’re 25–14 over the last 15 days, and we’ve cut our deficit significantly over that timeframe. All other selective samples are worse.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Houston @ Chicago (AL)
Yes, Garrett Crochet is really, really good. But Hunter Brown’s been back to himself lately, and for long enough now that his season-to-date stats are solid again. The Astros’ offense hasn’t been the problem this year, so don’t make too much out of last night’s shutout. The White Sox’ bullpen has often been the problem this year, so don’t give up on this one if Crochet stymies Houston through six or seven. The Astros should win this game.
Pick: Houston to win –117. Low confidence. (Brown and Crochet must start.)
World Series
The National League Wild Card picture is mayhem. Nine teams separated by two games fighting for two spots. At the moment, Arizona is in one of those two spots, and I don’t think anyone would say the Diamondbacks have played their best baseball. There’s value, then, on the team that’s in good position, and the team that’s a little bit hot.
Pick: Arizona to win +6000. Medium confidence.
NL East
Meanwhile, the Phillies keep winning and their odds keep not changing. At this point, we lose less than a unit on the NL East portion of our portfolio if Philadelphia wins the division. If things continue as they’re currently tracking, we’ll be in a profitable position with these guys tomorrow.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –350. Medium confidence.
