Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,995 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Hockey is back. Baseball is listed first, but we’ve got our NHL futures portfolio’s update and a pick for tonight’s game. For futures context: We started the year with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, but we also have another 520 set aside should we need to hedge down the line. We started the playoffs with 100 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with another 100 set aside for hedging (we’ve been hedging).
NL Central
FanGraphs has been low on the Cardinals, but MLB futures markets are often slow to react. After yesterday’s doubleheader sweep, the Cardinals are FanGraphs’s division favorites, a shocking turn given where things stood just a few weeks ago. We’ll jump on them here with the value positive, addressing what had been our biggest liability.
Pick: St. Louis to win +115. Medium confidence.
Pick: St. Louis to win +115. Medium confidence.
Game 1: Tampa Bay @ Colorado (Futures Portfolio)
This is a hedge. Gelo is higher on the Lightning than the market is, but not by a lot, and we were already set to make a big profit if the Lightning won the Cup, entering today. This takes us from a +92.55/-84.55 split between the Lightning/Avalanche winning the Cup to either a +114.26/-62.84 (if the Avs win tonight, in which case we’ll likely repeat the hedge in Game 2) or a +59.55/-117.55 (if the Avs lose tonight, in which case we might hedge further with a bet on the Avs to win the series but would probably need to do something more complicated or shorter-term, since we expect the Avs to only be at +135 to win the series should they lose tonight). Our bankroll is at 115.45 units entering today. We’ll use 33 of those on this play.
Pick: Colorado to win -152. Low confidence. x33
Tampa Bay @ Colorado
Gelo’s torn on this—it only sees a 6.18-goal total—but with the moneyline off the table because we aren’t going to bet against our futures play, this is the only spot we have value. Hoping for an exciting evening.
Pick: Over 6 (-116). Low confidence.
