Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,566 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
We press on:
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Love our Cyclones, but shorthanded, on the road, against a better team? I think the market (like the polls) is making more of this team than it should. Hope I’m wrong, think I’m right.
Pick: Oklahoma -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Missouri @ Arkansas
This is a big course correction game on paper. Mizzou’s been shooting the ball well, but they’ve caught two big programs in the midst of major problems, and while Arkansas’s going through it a bit themselves, they’re better than both Illinois and Kentucky (better than the former by a lot).
Pick: Arkansas -7 (-110). Low confidence.
