Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 839 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Two picks for tonight.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Houston Baptist @ Southeastern Louisiana
This game will, in all probability, be out of control. Houston Baptist, as we’ve written multiple times, plays the fastest basketball in the country. They have the worst defense in the country. They have an above-average offense. Southeastern Louisiana, as we haven’t written, also plays some very fast basketball. They are also bad on defense (though not quite as bad as their guests this evening). They, unlike Houston Baptist, have a terrible offense, but they haven’t seen a defense as bad of that of Houston Baptist, because there are no defenses as bad as that of Houston Baptist (actually, some of the non-Division I schools SELA’s played might give HBU a run for its money, but you get the point).
Houston Baptist has missed the 170 mark in each of its last games, but those came against the two slowest-tempo teams in the Southland, one of whom is uncharacteristically (by the league’s standards) strong defensively. And even that “low-scoring” game hit 159, having stretched itself to 80 possessions.
It’s a big total. But it looks like that’s scaring some people off, artificially deflating the line. Trust the game to be in the high 70’s possession-wise. Trust Houston Baptist’s defense, even on a strong night, to allow 1.1 points per possession or more. And trust that HBU offense to figure out a way to keep pace on the road. Buckle up.
Pick: Over 171 (-105). Low confidence.
Bradley @ Drake
Drake, statistically, has a proven strong home-court advantage (Des Moines: the rowdiest place on Earth). They also opened the season with eleven straight home victories after winning their last four at home last year. That streak ended on Saturday against Southern Illinois. The odds are favoring it to begin anew tonight.
Overall, this is pretty much a tossup, but it’s silly to put much stock in a home winning streak when the best team beaten in that streak is Loyola, who’s solid but by no means a great team. Add in Drake’s propensity to get burned by the three, and Bradley’s propensity to catch fire from deep, and it’s easy to see how a home losing streak may establish itself tonight.
Pick: Bradley to win (+145). Low confidence.
