Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,836 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Back to all four markets today. Here’s the context.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 18–9, we’re up 7.45 units, we’re up 28% (the average line on our winners has been –109). That 28% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging month of picks. Almost one-sixth of the way through the season.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re down 0.71 units so far, but we’ve got some coming back soon.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
Seattle @ Philadelphia
We’re going back to…what didn’t work.
After the Mariners ended our five-game winning streak last night, shutting down the Phillies in Philadelphia, we’re going back to the well. Some of this might be a systematic product of our approach—this is our fourth bet on the Phillies this season, which might be the most on any team—but we also just like this matchup. Logan Gilbert’s start was pushed back due to a spasm in his shoulder or back. The weather might be nasty. That’s not the recipe for a great outing from the third-year. We’ll take the Phils to get us back on track.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +104. Low confidence. (Gilbert and Walker must start.)
NLCS
We’re nearly a month into the season, and value continues to present itself on the best team in baseball. Atlanta isn’t there yet—they’ve only won a measly 75% of their games, so they trail the Rays in the overall standings—but this team is a force, and it isn’t going anywhere. Atlanta is the only team in the National League you can count on right now to make the playoffs. We’ll happily add more on them to our mix.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
World Series
The value here’s more narrow, but we’re glad to put something on the Rays while the opportunity’s there. This gives us eight teams who’d be profitable World Series champions for us, and pushes us over 50% likelihood to profit in that market in our young portfolio.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +900. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
The Celtics will still almost certainly get through the first round, but there’s a decent chance they need seven games to do it, while the Sixers get to rest. Couple that with the Bucks’ likely elimination later this week, and you’ve got a lot of value on Philadelphia. We’ll take it, doubling down on ‘em.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +900. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference (NHL)
We still like the Bruins here, and we like them enough to double down. They’re the best team in hockey, and they’re likely to finish off the first round tonight, giving them at least one more day of rest than the Leafs, and possibly a little bit more. The fact Gelo’s been high on the Leafs makes us feel even better about this, and the fact the odds are as short as they are makes us want to jump on it.
Pick: Boston to win +135. Low confidence.
