Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,827 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We’re active in four markets today. Here’s the context on each.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 13–7, we’re up 5.10 units, we’re up 25% (the average line on our winners has been –107). That 25% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
AL Central
I was texting with someone yesterday about where our portfolio stands, and I said, “We have at least one future down on 15 of the 24 teams with legitimate playoff possibilities.”
Then, the Tigers swept the Guardians.
It’s not the sort of day that should have an outsized impact on our impression of the Tigers. They are still the team they were. But after gaining a game and a half on the Twins in just a few hours, and with the Twins and Guardians both looking vulnerable while the Royals and White Sox both look bad, it’s worth considering Detroit.
The roster is bad. On paper, it’s bad. This isn’t one of those situations where the hype was there last year and then it went dormant but the same ingredients mean it should still exist. (The example I think of with this is the Diamondbacks in 2017.) Those same ingredients are, in fact, there, but they weren’t good last year either.
What this situation is, though, is one where the Tigers are playing in the worst division in baseball by a mile. It might only take 83 wins to get this done. At these odds? And with the potential for the Tigers to lean in should they wake up in July still in contention? We’d rather waste two units than let the opportunity pass us by.
Is the number 24 or 25? We’ll hope on the latter.
Pick: Detroit to win +5500. Medium confidence.
NLCS
We’re beginning to realize we need to stock up on Atlanta. They’re so much better than everybody else. So, so, so much better. Of the rest of the league, only the Rays have better than half the chance of winning the World Series that Atlanta has, per FanGraphs. Atlanta’s chance of making the playoffs is already approaching 98%. While the odds are there, we need to take them, and the odds are there today.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
New York (NL) @ Los Angeles
We are intentionally betting against Max Scherzer.
We love Scherzer, to be clear. He’s awesome. But Max Scherzer has not been pitching well, and Max Scherzer has been pitching hurt, and Max Scherzer has a history of trying to do too much (don’t forget whose overzealous NLDS cost the Dodgers the 2021 NLCS). Add onto this that Noah Syndergaard’s been pitching well so far, and we’ll take the Dodgers to win this series, even if we usually like favorites the day after losses for the sake of keeping our followers from dropping two in a row. This is just the best out there today. We don’t see any favorite worth taking, and we don’t see any underdog we like more.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +107. Low confidence. (Scherzer and Syndergaard must start.)
NBA Finals
FiveThirtyEight is indicating a little value on the Celtics right now, and we’ll happily take it, adding them to our mix which already includes the Sixers and Nuggets at 10-to-1 (plus the conference future we have on each). Really, what’s happening here is that FiveThirtyEight doubts the Bucks relative to where the market sees them, and that was happening even before Giannis got hurt.
Pick: Boston to win +275. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference (NHL)
We’re in on Boston here as well, but this time it’s the Bruins. Even at these very short odds, Gelo is showing positive value. We’re not seeing a lot of positive value out there aside from that on the Kings—whom we’re already in on—and the Kraken, whose odds shouldn’t change much before tomorrow. We’ll take this while it’s here.
Pick: Boston to win +150. Low confidence.
