I don’t know how much we’re down on the A’s this season. Whatever the number, they cut into it for us yesterday..
More MLB moneyline action today, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
If you account for the likely unavailability of Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, this is probably negative expected value. If you account for how big Wade Miley’s downside is, having allowed nine earned runs over nine innings of work since the start of 2024, there are a lot of scenarios where Clase and Smith don’t matter. Against a tough board, we’ll ride with the Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland to win –157. 15.00 units to win 9.55. Miley and Ortiz must start.
NL East
The Mets are playing well, and markets aren’t fully caught up, especially with the Braves reinvigorating their struggles lately. This isn’t pretty, but it’s a good piece to have in the portfolio. Even a 21% return (like the next one) over three and a half months isn’t bad.
Pick: New York to win –225. 2.00 units to win 0.89.
NL West
This is more that futures markets are probably overreacting to other NL West teams playing well. We don’t think the Dodgers deserve their World Series price, but this division price is reasonable.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –475. 2.00 units to win 0.42.
NBA Finals
Before this series started, we said the Thunder winning it in six games was the likeliest scenario. An update? It still is. At least, based on our crude simulations based off of market moneyline prices for Game 3.
Back before the series started, the value was on the overs: Over 4.5 games. Over 5.5. One of those has already hit, which helps our cause, but right now, the value’s on the under. Specifically, it’s on under 6.5 games. The price is a little expensive, but considering someone will likely lead this series 3–2 and that team has a good chance to be favored in Game 6 (if it’s the Pacers, they’ll have either won twice in Indy or won again in OKC), that expensiveness doesn’t make it a bad deal.
New scenarios for our total 200-unit portfolio, which is up 60.74 units after clinching that over 4.5 last night:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 | 137.42 |
| Pacers | 5 | 119.82 |
| Pacers | 7 | 119.69 |
| Thunder | 6 | 69.6 |
| Thunder | 7 | 51.87 |
| Thunder | 5 | 36.57 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–275). 13.00 units to win 4.73.
Stanley Cup Finals
Same pick here, for a better price. As we said yesterday, our model isn’t seeing a ton of value in Stanley Cup markets right now.
New scenarios, with this 200-unit portfolio down 32.31 units heading into Game 3.
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 5 | 14.1% | 51.87 |
| Oilers in 6 | 17.3% | 24.12 |
| Oilers in 7 | 18.7% | -2.33 |
| Panthers in 5 | 14.8% | -28.91 |
| Panthers in 6 | 20.1% | -56.66 |
| Panthers in 7 | 15.2% | -101.11 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–165). 6.00 units to win 3.64.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –283.46 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 369 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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