No luck on much of anything yesterday, although the Oilers winning was a big deal for our NHL futures. We’ll circle the MLB wagons today and hope for good news on the futures fronts. We’ve got another MLB moneyline, our latest Rockies run line, our weekday MLB futures, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Chicago (AL) at New York (NL)
We’ve lost two MLB moneylines in a row, which means we’re turning to the biggest favorite we can find with no red flags. Or, in this case, limited red flags. Adrian Houser’s White Sox debut went really well.
Pick: New York to win –265. 15.00 units to win 5.66. Houser and Holmes must start.
Colorado at Chicago (NL)
Wind blowing in at Wrigley today, but that should only create value here. The Rockies have failed to cover +1.5 in 71.7% of games so far.
Pick: Chicago –1.5 (–145). 15.00 units to win 10.34. Palmquist and Taillon must start.
NBA Eastern Conference
We’re of course nervous about the Pacers, with a lot more downside from the Knicks than upside on Indiana. But we’re not convinced the Knicks are the better team, and the likeliest thing is that Indiana gets out of Game 4 with a 3–1 lead. No value on the Thunder or Timberwolves, so we’ll put our four units on this and make Pacers over Thunder a profitable Finals scenario for our portolio.
Pick: Indiana to win –200. 4.00 units to win 2.00.
NHL Eastern Conference
Our model doesn’t see any value today in any markets we’re seeing. The expected ROI on this is at least close to zero, though. We’ll take the risk in exchange for what’ll probably be 2.5% interest on a twelve-hour investment.
Pick: Florida to win –4000. 4.00 units to win 0.10.
AL West
There’s narrow value available on the Astros again, and by getting them here, we can make both Houston and Seattle profitable outcomes for us in the AL West market. We’re not especially concerned about the Rangers.
Pick: Houston to win +190. 2.00 units to win 3.80.
World Series
There’s postseason value available as well, and we don’t have any of that on these guys. Important team to have something on.
Pick: Houston to win +2500. 2.00 units to win 50.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –288.77 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 343 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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