Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,072 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 4% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 4%’s into a whole lot more than 4% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
One Wild Card Series future after the individual game picks, with the line from that coming from Bovada due to the absence of a current Vegas Consensus online. First, though…
Chicago (AL) @ Oakland
The White Sox stumbled into the playoffs, losing seven of their final eight games and dropping not only a division title, but also the prospect of home games this week.
On the mound, the Sox have the advantage today. Jesús Luzardo, though a promising rookie, is not Lucas Giolito. At the plate, the Sox also have the advantage, with arguably the best lineup in the league opposing a Matt Chapman-less, already-vulnerable A’s nine.
Still, with Oakland a pitcher’s park, if the Sox don’t grab the lead early against Luzardo, this should be a grinder of a game, with the advantage shifting more and more towards Oakland the more the bullpens become a factor.
Pick: Oakland +1.5 (-155). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Cleveland
Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber. The expected best pitcher in baseball vs. the actual thing.
Both Cole and Bieber are great, and Cleveland’s offense certainly had its struggles this year. Still, 6.5 is a low total for a seven-inning game, let alone nine, and while it’ll be cool tonight in Cleveland, it won’t be outright cold. Couple that with the wind not blowing in from Lake Erie tonight as it often does, and Progressive Field suddenly isn’t as damning of an environment.
Someone’s gotta score.
As for the run line? Don’t underestimate Cleveland’s bullpen to hold its own against that of the Yankees. If this is close when the starters exit, as it’s expected to be, the Yankees don’t gain all that much of an advantage. Yes, there’s more depth on the visiting side, but Brad Hand and James Karinchak are better individually than anyone upon whom Aaron Boone can call.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland +1.5 (-180). Low confidence.
Wild Card Series: Houston @ Minnesota
The Astros are difficult to evaluate. They finished the season with a losing record, yet FanGraphs—the best publicly available evaluator of teams on paper—has their roster as the sixth-best in the game. There are questions as to whether this year’s been the first the team’s stopped cheating, and how much that’s harmed them. There are questions as to what’s going on with the team’s collective psyche.
There are explanations for the losing record that would bode well for Houston these next few weeks. They’re not necessarily accurate, but they could be. For instance: It’s possible there was a lack of urgency due to the expanded playoffs—while the Mariners and Angels were, at times, within arm’s reach in the standings, there was never much real justification for fear (or hope) that the Astros would fail to make the field. Alternatively (or in a combining way), it’s possible the Astros were handcuffed by the back end of their rotation, and that with Zack Greinke and Framber Valdez picking up a larger share of innings, that side of the game will improve.
It’s worth noting that while José Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel have struggled this year, and Alex Bregman hasn’t met expectations; George Springer, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Martín Maldonado have all performed well at the plate. Altuve and Correa have received the bulk of the attention, and the offense wasn’t good enough to win 30 games, but there are still some pieces that aren’t disappointing.
The Astros catch a break today with Josh Donaldson out of the Twins’ starting lineup as he deals with a calf injury. They’re deservedly underdogs, but Games 2 and 3 could be favorable, with José Berríos and Michael Pineda on the mound for Minnesota after Kenta Maeda throws today. Pineda’s been great over his five starts since returning from suspension, but it’s only been five starts, and beyond the Twins themselves, no lineup in the Central Divisions matches that of the Astros in heft.
In short, there’s value to be had on the Astros, even if uncertainty’s high. If they lose today, yes, their chances will drop significantly, but if all goes as appears, today should be their worst matchup of the series.
Pick: Houston to win series +160. Low confidence.
