Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,134 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 2%’s into a whole lot more than 2% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
First, a little context on where these picks’ portfolio stands:
It’s been a rough futures season. We were in good shape with Atlanta, but their collapse sunk us out of the possibility of profiting with the current portfolio. If we were to make no new picks and the Dodgers were to win, the average return per unit would drop below 0.5%. If we were to make no new picks and the Rays were to win, the average return per unit would rise back to roughly 3%.
The goal with these is to keep that average return per unit positive. Ideally, the more positive the better, but we’ll take positive. That gives these their legitimacy. Legitimacy is the goal.
So, we enter with that framework. With that being said, though, neither of these is a hedge. They’re the two best bets we found. And because they’re futures/props and accurate Vegas Consensus odds aren’t easy to find on those, we’re using Bovada’s odds.
World Series
The Dodgers are the clear favorite, winning somewhere around 70% of the time when I simulated it roughly fifty thousand times just now. They’re clearly the better team, and while the Rays have outperformed expectations much of the year, which implies they might be grabbing individual-game advantages the numbers don’t capture (through things like bullpen management), that’s a big hypothesis to make a bet on.
As far as the total games go: If the Dodgers win the series, it’s more likely it’s a short series. But on the whole, it’s more likely this goes back and forth long enough for the loser to win two, especially with the Rays holding the stronger pitching arsenal.
Pick: Los Angeles to win -205. Medium confidence.
Pick: Over 5.5 games (-180). Low confidence.
