Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,622 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.3% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have futures again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Houston @ Chicago (AL)
Will Rodón turn in a productive start today? I’m not sure. But the White Sox can’t be tossing him out there if he’s in that bad of shape, right? And they’ll pull him quickly if he struggles? This seems to be where the value’s at, if there’s any to be had.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win -110. Low confidence.
Milwaukee @ Atlanta
The numbers on three days’ rest pitching aren’t great. Maybe Charlie Morton can do better. Maybe the Brewers’ offense is bad enough for it to not matter. But there seems to be some lulling-to-sleep going on with the market and the low scores so far this series.
Pick: Over 8 (-120). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Los Angeles
The Dodgers have a great bullpen, but it’s possible they’ll need nobody to blink tonight. The Giants might be overmatched on paper, but their pitching gives them more than a puncher’s chance.
Pick: San Francisco to win +145. Low confidence.
World Series
The White Sox just need to win two in a row to be right back in this thing. With the Dodgers on the ropes, too, there’s some indirect value added here.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +1500. Low confidence.
NLCS
Pure hedge. We don’t want to get wrecked by a Dodgers comeback for the second straight year, so anytime they’re facing elimination and we can afford it, we’ll shore up that end.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +240. Low confidence.
