Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,606 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.0% across 947 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures again today. The unit context on the futures is that we started the season with 1,040 units available for futures and hedges against those futures. Entering today, we’ve netted 14.74 units of profit, and we have 608.74 units in the bankroll, with 446 units pending.
World Series
There’s positive value available on Atlanta, and we’re going to roll with it, even if the value is mostly on underdogs everywhere else. This helps close the gap between Atlanta and Philadelphia for us, which is a small thing but could help if the Dodgers beat the Padres (we have a gigantic spread between the Dodgers and Padres, and are therefore very much hoping the Padres can split these two in Los Angeles).
Pick: Atlanta to win +525. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +525. Medium confidence.
