Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,782 published picks, not including pending futures. 3% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football game picks, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
We do have a future today, in the college football world, the odds for which come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though…
Florida International @ Georgia
There seems to be some discounting of the Dawgs going on here, perhaps because of perpetual underachievement under Tom Crean, perhaps because the roster’s entirely new. Both those reasons are a little suspect, speaking objectively.
Pick: Georgia -7 (-110). Medium confidence.
Evansville @ Cincinnati
Jawaun Newton’s reportedly going to play for the Aces, who are now two years removed from the sad disaster that was 2019-20 in Evansville. Expect them to give some trouble to Wes Miller’s Bearcats in the coach’s debut.
Pick: Evansville +11.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Milwaukee @ North Dakota
It’s Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s first college game, and there seems to be a gap between what KenPom thinks that means and what the market thinks that means. Sure, North Dakota’s playing at home, but there might be some overthinking going on.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -300. Medium confidence.
UT-Arlington @ Oklahoma State
Is Oklahoma State going to show up ready to play, knowing there’s no postseason awaiting them? You could make a case that they’ll struggle, but it’s a rather subjective case.
Pick: Oklahoma State -18 (-110). Medium confidence.
Montana State @ Colorado
Javon Ruffin might be out for the Buffs, but he doesn’t figure to be the biggest part of their roster anyway. Maybe there’s something else moving the line here, but if there is, I’ve yet to find it.
Pick: Colorado -12 (-110). Medium confidence.
College Football Playoff
Unless Georgia loses two more times against a schedule consisting of Tennessee (A), Charleston Southern (H), Georgia Tech (A), and the SEC West Champion (N), they’ll make the playoff, and even if they do lose twice against that schedule, it’s possible they’ll crack the field. The probability of them finishing the regular season with one loss or fewer is, per SP+, 98%, with a 74% shot at going 12-0 and a 24% shot at going 11-1. The probability of them beating Alabama in the conference championship (and Alabama would be their toughest possible opponent) is something like 58%. If you take the 24% chance they go 11-1 and multiply it by the chance they lose to Alabama, then add that to the 2% chance they somehow lose two more times from here, you get a 12% chance they’re 11-2 (or worse) at year’s end. Even if you say they don’t make the playoff if they lose twice—a conservative piece of logic—this comes out as positive value if you say they’ll be a ten-point favorite in the semifinals and a four-point favorite in the championship (currently, only two teams are within ten points of Georgia by FPI—Alabama, which is 2.7 points back; and Ohio State, which is 3.5 points back). Those are some fairly cautious assumptions we’re making, and it’s still turning up positive value. Now’s the time to get in on Georgia if you’re building a portfolio and they’re not yet in it. Six units here for us.
Pick: Georgia to win -110. Medium confidence.
Pick: Georgia to win -110. Medium confidence.
Pick: Georgia to win -110. Medium confidence.
