Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,460 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Game 2: Philadelphia @ New York (NL)
David Peterson is hard to read. He’s thrown some gems this year. His FIP isn’t far out of line with expectations. He’s had some bad-luck stinkers, but he’s also had some legitimate stinkers. His xERA is bad.
Overall, he’s probably not much worse than projections expect him to be, and while the doubleheader aspect does mix this up, he, with the backing of some bullpen depth, gives the Mets a solid chance to win the nightcap.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -155. Low confidence.
