Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 663 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College of Charleston @ Marshall
Grant Riller, one of the best point guards in mid-major basketball, is back for Charleston for his senior year, and is playing as well as ever, getting to the line, making shots, doling out assists, generating turnovers on defense, and protecting the ball offensively. He makes Charleston hum, and with Sam Miller and Jaylen McManus taking on their larger roles successfully so far, the hole Jarrell Brantley left in the lineup when he graduated has been as well-filled as Charleston could have hoped.
Marshall, though, presents a set of problems Charleston might not be equipped to handle. They play a blistering pace. They’re formidable inside defensively. They do struggle on the glass, but it’s possible that’s more a function of pace than anything else, which would translate into higher success against a slow-paced team like Charleston.
Riller will do his job. It just might not be enough.
Pick: Marshall +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Delaware @ St. Francis (PA)
Delaware has yet to lose, rolling off five straight victories to begin the season. St. Francis, though (the one in Pennsylvania), has performed well so far themselves, and while they only have a .500 record to show for it, losses at VCU and Richmond are nothing of which to be ashamed.
Since the season began, both teams have risen in KenPom’s ratings. St. Francis, though, is still rated as the better team. When the better team is an underdog at home, something’s off.
Pick: St. Francis (PA) to win (+110). Low confidence.
Nicholls State @ Rhode Island
Through three games, Rhode Island has the ninth-shortest average defensive possession in college basketball.
That should change tonight.
Nicholls plays an above-average tempo, but nothing like that of Alabama, LIU, or even Maryland, which has been unusually high-pace so far on the offensive end. Expect Rhode Island’s tempo regression to begin, and expect a total closer to 140 than what’s listed.
Pick: Under 145.5 (-110). Low confidence.
