Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,875 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where we stand in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 26–14, we’re up 10.21 units, we’re up 26% (the average line on our winners has been –107). We got the win yesterday. Let’s build off that and make this a good week.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 4.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Boston @ Atlanta
We don’t like Charlie Morton’s xERA, but we don’t like much on tonight’s board, and you can do worse than betting on the best team in baseball to take care of business in a series opener. We’ll trust our own history here.
Pick: Atlanta to win –176. Low confidence (Pivetta and Morton must start.)
AL East
More of this and the next one, as we try to build a nice block of division favorites among those heavily favored to win their divisions. We do want to be conscious of oversized risk here—we don’t want to put so much on Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota that we’re dependent on all three finishing the job—but we also don’t want to be reliant on the Rangers or someone like that pulling it out to leave us profitable over the regular season.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –190. Medium confidence.
NL East
These odds are short, but that’s part of what’s nice about doing this as a portfolio. You can mix in some very short odds and slowly amass the value they present. This is valuable, partially because it’s the closest future out there to a 100% play right now in the markets we use.
Pick: Atlanta to win –550. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
It’s time.
All postseason, we’ve ridden the Heat, with the only question being how hard to hit the throttle. At this point, we think they’re likely enough to get past the Knicks to make this a safe short-term piece, and with the Sixers standing a very real chance of getting past the Celtics, these odds could shorten dramatically by the time the Eastern Conference Finals roll around. We aren’t trying to win every future. We’re trying to build a sizable collection of value we can translate into earnings at the end of the campaign.
Pick: Miami to win +1800. Low confidence.
Western Conference
Vegas has home-ice advantage again, and while goaltending is a big question mark with Laurent Brossoit hurt, this is too good of value to allow to pass us by, especially with the Stars or the Kraken up next for whoever does get out of the Pacific corner of the bracket. We’ve been holding off on making a play here out of fear of the Oilers, but we need to start building some value in the Conference Finals, especially with two dead units on the Bruins in the East.
Pick: Vegas to win +190. Low confidence.
