Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,347 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 27–32 so far, down 6.26 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we’re on another cold stretch now. We changed the approach a little yesterday, and we made a small profit on the day, but we’re early in the pivot.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
Anaheim @ Pittsburgh
We’re worried about rain shortening this one, but we really like the Sandoval/Priester matchup. Sandoval is one of those guys with a great FIP and xERA despite his bad ERA, while Priester has had a lot of really bad starts in his young career. Hopefully the game goes quickly and the weather takes its time.
Pick: Anaheim to win +120. Low confidence. (Sandoval and Priester must start.)
Toronto @ Philadelphia
Berríos vs. Sánchez is a tough matchup, but that’s priced in. The Phillies are hot, and while Matt Strahm’s potentially unavailable based on his usage yesterday, it doesn’t sound like Yimi García’s at 100% himself. The Blue Jays have less cushion than the Phillies in their bullpen.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –113. Low confidence. (Berríos and Sánchez must start.)
Chicago (AL) @ Tampa Bay
Zach Eflin hasn’t quite been up to expectations this year, but he’s still been very good, and the White Sox are what they are. This reads as a game where the Rays take care of business.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –263. Low confidence. (Soroka and Eflin must start.)
Miami @ Los Angeles
Similarly, for as many strikeouts as Edward Cabrera generates, the Marlins are who they are right now, and they are a team whose front office is already selling in May. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s been great, as advertised. We see the Dodgers handling their business here.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –285. Low confidence. (Cabrera and Yamamoto must start.)
NL Central
There’s still narrowly positive value on the Cubs today, so we’re going to take it, pushing them clear of being a break-even NL Central scenario in our portfolio by more than two units, which gives us the flexibility to bet someone else when value presents itself without worrying about pushing our Cubs scenario below water. Overall, our NL Central scenarios now look like this:
| Team | P/L |
| Pirates | 26.00 |
| Cubs | 2.70 |
| Brewers | 2.00 |
| Cardinals | -3.00 |
| Reds | -12.00 |
Pick: Chicago to win +110. Medium confidence.
AL West
In the West, we’re not ready to give up on the Astros yet. They’re too good on paper, and we have too many concerns about the Rangers, a team toward whom FanGraphs should theoretically be sympathetic because it assumes the best regarding injury timing. New scenarios there:
| Team | P/L |
| Athletics | 386.00 |
| Angels | 86.00 |
| Astros | 4.80 |
| Mariners | 2.20 |
| Rangers | -16.00 |
Big vulnerability on the Rangers, but it’s too early in the season to worry much about those.
Pick: Houston to win +350. Medium confidence.
Western Conference
We have more upside on the Timberwolves than the Nuggets, so we’re in good shape there. Thankfully, most of our insulation against a Celtics/Nuggets Finals matchup also insulated us against a Celtics/Wolves clash.
We’re in even better shape on the Thunder, but that’s where we still see the value. We have plenty of doubts about this team, but the market has adjusted too quickly to the Timberwolves for that bandwagon to be worthwhile, and while we see the angle for the Mavericks, they come with a lot of red flags, most notably their lack of depth. We don’t like being this far in on a team we don’t believe in, but thankfully, we do still have those T-Wolves, and the value of our Celtics futures is appreciating quickly now that the Nuggets are on the ropes. The Mavericks are our only real vulnerability. If we need to deal with it down the line, we can.
Pick: Oklahoma City to win +310. Low confidence.
Second Round: Florida vs. Boston
I know the Bruins aren’t the best team left in these playoffs, but they have a 1–0 lead on the Panthers and Jeremy Swayman is playing out of his mind.
Gelo’s results these last two years have been a mixed bag. But we do like how streaky it assumes teams are. That’s one spot it agrees with conventional wisdom, and I wonder if this is a case where the market is too swayed by the baseball-driven statistical wisdom which holds that streakiness isn’t all that real.
Either way, we’ll take the team with a 1–0 series lead as a narrow underdog.
Pick: Boston to win –105. Low confidence.
