Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,817 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
More MLB futures today, as we rise to 80 of 520 units invested (with 520 more units in reserve, waiting for October or September hedging), as well as our second day of NHL bets, where Gelo won twice yesterday and took a positive step with its early futures (the futures bankroll on the NHL side is 200 units, though we hope to not have to bet them all).
World Series
We talked on this site a few weeks ago about not putting too little stock in early results. Today, we’re going the more traditional route: Don’t put too much stock in early results. The defending champs are still below .500, but they’re still one of the best teams in baseball on paper, and while they’re more likely a wildcard than a division winner, these are solid odds for a capable wildcard in the current setup. We’ll double down on Atlanta here.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1800. Medium confidence.
ALCS
Similarly, but less extremely, the Astros are fine. They’re two and a half back of the Angels and just a game over .500, but they have the guys, the West is still theirs to lose, and they’re almost 50/50 to get a bye to the Division Series, since those go to division champions, meaning the Blue Jays and Yankees can only get one, combined. Good day to add to our Astros bets.
Pick: Houston to win +700. Medium confidence.
Pittsburgh @ New York
The Rangers are right around the median in terms of how high-scoring our NHL Gelo model expects them to be, with the Penguins a bit higher but not excessively high. Still, this is a low total. And we’re going to ride on it.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-114). Low confidence.
Nashville @ Colorado
Gelo is low on the Avalanche, relative to the market. It isn’t as impressed with their offense as is normal, and it’s concerned about their defense. The Predators might only be the 20th-best team in the NHL, by Gelo, but they’ve got a better chance here on the road than the odds indicate. We’ll take a little shot with what our numbers won us yesterday.
Pick: Nashville to win +256. Low confidence.
First Round Series: Colorado vs. Nashville
On the futures side, Gelo likes Nashville as well, seeing this as one of the most valuable plays available on the market today. It’s a wide-enough spread where, if you’re the hedging type, you might be able to hedge from this position if the Predators can win just one in Denver, something even the market views as a 50/50 possibility. High upside, high immediacy if it works.
Pick: Nashville to win +500. Low confidence.
Western Conference
And, going further off of our trust of Gelo’s Colorado distrust, we’ll add the Blues to our Western Conference portfolio, which already has the Wild at 8-to-1 and the Kings at 33-to-1 from yesterday. Gelo gives us a 43% chance of hitting on one of those three, and even trusting the market to be smarter than Gelo (which we do—futures are just an inefficient, exploitable realm), the implication is that we’re above 1-in-3 with a lot of upside. We will have a team at 8-to-1 in the conference semifinals, and we may even have one at 33-to-1.
Pick: St. Louis to win +800. Low confidence.
