Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,897 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo had a great night. Hit both its plays on that Game 7, hit its little Rangers-over-Hurricanes future, eliminated a liability in the form Carolina from the overall portfolio. We’re still not out of the woods on the futures—we haven’t placed a single bet on the Avalanche, and while we’ll get a good chunk from whoever wins the Eastern Conference Finals, it won’t be enough to cover the whole Colorado gap—but we’re in good shape, and we’re going to try to get into better shape today. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need those to hedge.
Edmonton @ Colorado
Gelo sees plenty of value on the Oilers here, but the gap between Gelo and the market when it comes to the Avalanche has us worried, so we’ll hang back, as we have often done on the moneylines of Avalanche opponents of late. Gelo also likes the under—it sees this as a 6.50-goal total—and while these are short odds, they’re probably our best play for the evening.
Pick: Under 7 (-133). Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
This could change with a decisive Avalanche win tonight, but Gelo thinks the Lightning are the best team in hockey right now. Still, with home-ice advantage, it likes the value on the Rangers, which is easy for us to take when…
Pick: New York Rangers to win +160. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
…Gelo also sees value on the Lightning next round. If the Oilers win the West, we’re set, but if they don’t, we want a strong position on both the Rangers and the Lightning so we can hedge if necessary. This pair helps us build that up.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +230. Low confidence.
NL East
The Mets have finally outrun the market, with futures value available on them for the first time in about six weeks. This doesn’t flip them back to a profitable option in this division yet, but it does get us back to profitable in the chalkiest overall division champion combination scenario, helping us out should the White Sox and Dodgers both pull through.
Pick: New York to win -275. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win -275. Medium confidence.
