Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,957 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 36–25, we’re up 6.94 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –113). May hasn’t been a great month, but we’re profitable over the last half of it.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco
More on the Giants below, but we really like them overall. We really, really like the Giants. Johan Oviedo is having a good year, but he’s been around expectations more of late, and Sean Manaea (who’s tentatively expected to handle the bulk of the innings tonight after the opener) has been good his last couple times out there. The Manaea thing is a small sample, but the Oviedo piece is not, and on the whole? The Giants are the better team, playing at home. We think the value’s there, but even if it isn’t, the probability’s on our side.
Pick: San Francisco to win –143. Low confidence. (Oviedo and Brebbia must start.)
AL Central
We continue to like the Twins in the AL Central, where our long-odds bets on the Tigers (55-to-1) and White Sox (15-to-1) have us effectively fading the Guardians. We don’t love that—the Guardians are a bit mysterious because of how strong their development is—but we do have the time and cushion from which to use this leverage if something breaks our way. At the moment, this puts us back into the boat where if all the division favorites win, we profit across those six markets. In every division but this one and the NL East, we have additional upside on the second-likeliest champ.
Pick: Minnesota to win –235. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Giants are on a quiet tear right now, winning eleven of their last fourteen while playing mostly good teams (the worst record among the five they’ve played is the Phillies’ 25–28 mark). They’re a good team who stumbled out of the gate and got lost in the mix in the market. We’ve been adding units on them for a while now, and we aren’t about to stop. They’re the best value this market has, they pair well with our other favorite son, the Diamondbacks, and they just crossed the 50% threshold in playoff probability per FanGraphs, our guiding light. Go Giants.
Pick: San Francisco to win +5000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals (Hedge)
The situation with our NBA portfolio is as follows: We’re up big already on our initial investment, and we’re locked into profit as our outstanding bets stand, but we could lose a lot of what we’ve gained if the Nuggets win the Finals, which is likelier than the Heat winning. FiveThirtyEight has guided us well this postseason, but we’ve also hedged, and we’re going to hedge again here. It’s going to be cautious—we plan to hedge very slowly these next three days and hope the Heat can shorten the Nuggets’ odds from there—and we’re going to leave enough upside open between the Finals and the Stanley Cup to wash out our all-time deficit, which is currently 58.59 units—but we’re going to hedge. Our utility right now is maximized by being above the break-even line all-time. If we clear it, clearing it by a few more units doesn’t help us as much as cutting the gap by a few more units.
Pick: Denver to win –400. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
It’s a similar story here, though it’s more of a tossup between the Knights (our preference) and the Panthers, and the Knights are favored. Again, we’re trying to chip away at our all-time deficit, and we can do that while keeping the same probability of wiping the deficit out entirely. Do it enough, in fact, and we could improve that probability, getting to where we only need the Heat to win to get us across the line. Either way, hopefully the Knights take an early series lead or Gelo sees some value materialize on one team or the other. At the moment, Gelo and the betting markets are pretty much in lockstep. Which is cool, because sports betting markets are efficient, especially in the very short term, so we probably made a good model, but makes this less fun.
Pick: Florida to win +110. Low confidence.
