Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,857 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to know about how we operate in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 23–10, we’re up 11.62 units, we’re up 35% (the average line on our winners has been –106). I don’t know how long we’ll keep this going to this extent, but at the moment, we are pulverizing MLB moneylines.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Anaheim @ St. Louis
Usually, after we lose one of these, we like to bet a favorite. We do this because as we gain new followers, we don’t want to start someone with two losses in a row, and even when an underdog is valuable, they’re still more likely to lose than win.
Tonight, though, this is too good to pass up. We don’t subscribe to the theory that the Cardinals are already toast, but we also think the market’s undervaluing the Angels with Shohei Ohtani getting the night off, and while Patrick Sandoval’s ERA’s a little misleading, he’s still a solid pitcher. We’ll take the team with Mike Trout in its lineup.
Pick: Anaheim to win +131. Low confidence. (Sandoval and Matz must start.)
ALCS
We’re going straight back to this one, flipping the Blue Jays to a profitable scenario for us in the AL Pennant market. One thing to like about this team beyond the numbers: They’re likely to invest and get better. This is a franchise with cause for hunger.
Pick: Toronto to win +600. Medium confidence.
World Series
There isn’t cause for hunger here, but the value is still great, and we’re happy to make the favorites a profitable scenario again in the World Series market. This team is so, so, so much better than everyone else. That doesn’t translate to being favored over the field, but the odds shouldn’t be as long as they are.
Pick: Atlanta to win +550. Medium confidence.
Second Round: Denver vs. Phoenix
Even at this expensive price, Denver commands value right now. They managed to win their two games in a row at home, meaning they’re really the ones who’ve seized back home-court advantage. They reasonably need to just win one in Arizona, and they could probably get away with losing both. It’s no sure thing, but there’s value here, and we’ll take it.
Pick: Denver –350. Low confidence.
Second Round: Dallas vs. Seattle
The odds on this series are suddenly all over the place, and we’ll gladly take the long ones among them. The Kraken are the worst team remaining, but Dallas has a lot of trouble scoring, and if Philipp Grubauer can play like he did in Game 7, that’s going to be especially hard against Seattle. We’ve been quick to hedge and we’ll likely remain quick to hedge if the opportunity arises, but we do like the Kraken’s value, based on what Gelo’s seeing and what Gelo’s seen so far.
Pick: Seattle to win +175. Low confidence.
