Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,396 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 44–50 so far, down 10.84 units. It is going terribly. We did win our last two, though. And for better or worse, there is a lot of season left.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 1.17 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Kansas City @ Minnesota
We hate to pick against Cole Ragans, but it’s hard to find a better option on today’s board. Simeon Woods Richardson keeps being a serviceable starter, and the Twins’ streakiness is persistent enough that it might be a real trend. We’ve already seen that evidence that the market undervalues Monday winners on Tuesday. We feel especially comfortable with that approach with a team who’s followed up so many wins with wins and losses with losses.
Pick: Minnesota to win +121. Low confidence. (Ragans and Woods Richardson must start.)
World Series
We’ll start the futures in San Francisco, where we’re adding the Giants to our World Series arsenal for the first time this year. They’re a longshot, but a strong roster remains amidst the injuries, and they’ve been playing better lately. 65-to-1 is a good price, and as we saw with the Padres after we loaded up on them last week, it can quickly shorten.
Pick: San Francisco to win +6500. Medium confidence.
NL West
Staying in the NL West, this price is too good on the Padres. Yes, they’ll probably stay behind the Dodgers, but the path is there for San Diego to make this a race. It runs mainly through starting pitching.
Pick: San Diego to win +2500. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
Our hope is that the Timberwolves will win tonight and get us at least a shred more leverage to use for hedges on the Mavericks, but in the meantime, we’ll stay on the Celtics, where we do see value at this price, even if there are still angles for doubt.
Pick: Boston to win –220. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
We’re staying on the Stars as well, as the market still apparently thinks more of the Oilers than Gelo does. We’re a long way from being out of the woods, but this does make Dallas a profitable scenario for us in the Western Conference, opening the door that much further to the possibility of entering the Stanley Cup Finals with our portfolio locked into profitability.
Pick: Dallas to win –245. Low confidence.
