Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,875 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo put up another good night last night, hitting on its Lightning series picks from last week in addition to the moneyline. More hockey today, more baseball futures. For futures portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with another 100 in reserve in case of hedging need. The MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case of hedging need.
Carolina @ New York Rangers
Surely, the over will hit at some point in this series, right?
In all seriousness, this is where Gelo sees the best value in this game, and with Gelo having a good time compared to the market in recent days, we’ll take the shot.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+107). Low confidence.
Calgary @ Edmonton
Gelo views the Oilers as the better team here by a decent margin. Them playing at home? We’re all aboard.
Pick: Edmonton to win -118. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
No matter where you get your info—Gelo or the market—there’s evidently about a 50/50 shot the Rangers turn this series with the Hurricanes into a best of three. We’ll take our shot on these odds looking very good in the morning for them, with the knowledge that we may be burning a unit in exchange for upside.
With the Lightning, Gelo knows they won’t have home-ice advantage the rest of the playoffs, but it also views them as the best team in hockey right now, and while that view will probably change should the Avalanche win Game 5, as is expected, the bottom line is that it’s close between the pair. We’ll keep adding value to the Lightning, and while we’ll hope for a Lightning/Rangers Eastern Conference Finals (and for the Oilers to get past the Flames in the West), we’ll equip ourselves that much better for a scenario in which we want to place a hedge on the Canes. (It might not need to be a hedge, either—Gelo and the market are so far apart on the Avalanche that it’s possible everyone but the Avalanche playing next round will have some value on them. Though I suppose Gelo’s low on the Flames as well, now that I say that.)
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +260. Low confidence.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +2200. Low confidence.
ALCS
With so much season left, when there’s value like there’s value on the Astros in the AL Pennant market, now’s a good time to pile up. The Angels are making it interesting, but the Astros are better built for the long haul in a division where the winner is almost guaranteed a bye to the Division Series.
Pick: Houston to win +450. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Padres are having a little moment right now. Thankfully, the market hasn’t fully reacted. We will gladly react in its stead.
Pick: San Diego to win +1600. Medium confidence.
