Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,911 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 32–22, we’re up 6.68 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –112). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month, we’ve been more on track lately, winning our last three.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Kyle Bradish is having a great year, and this line sitting where it does in an Orioles/Yankees game in the Bronx is a testament to the transformation Baltimore’s managed over the last twelve months, but Gerrit Cole is just so much better than Bradish, and the Yankees are—on paper—so much better than the Orioles. It’s expensive—we don’t take odds this short too often—but it’s a good price.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –164. Low confidence. (Bradish and Cole must start.)
World Series
There is well over a 75% chance at least one of these two teams makes the playoffs, which means we’re likely to get some leverage from this. The value is absurd, and while this combines with previous action on these two to put us in a position where we’re much heavier on two specific longshots than we’d like to be, we’re also going to put another 352 units down over the course of this regular season, so what feels heavy right now won’t feel as heavy come September.
Pick: Arizona to win +8000. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +9000. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
We’re just going for value here, with a lot in the bank, a lot of upside left, and not much downside remaining. Once the Eastern Conference wraps up, we’ll start making a hedging plan, but until it does, we’re going to maximize value.
Pick: Miami to win +270. Low confidence.
Western Conference
Here as well, it’s only about value. We’re comfortable enough in where we are—expecting a few units from the Panthers, not much liability on the Stars—to place another one on the Knights in the conference market. It undoes a little bit of our hedge, but you can only deal with one day’s information at a time. The hedge was the right move when we placed it for what we needed. This is the right move for what we need now.
Pick: Vegas to win –380. Low confidence.
