Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,893 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Just three markets today, as we give the NHL futures a day off in the interests of time.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 28–19, we’re up 6.32 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –111). It’s been a good start to the year, and we broke our little losing streak last night, which was a nice reset.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.27 units so far.
Milwaukee @ St. Louis
Whether the Cardinals have figured things out or not, it’s been a great four days for St. Louis, with two ninth-inning comebacks leading a sweep of the Red Sox before last night’s blowout of the NL Central favorites. This is an expensive price, but FanGraphs likes it, and FanGraphs tends to take a very anti-recency view. That makes us trust the play enough to take it.
Pick: St. Louis to win –172. Low confidence. (Miley and Montgomery must start.)
NL East
Markets are moving right now, but we aren’t yet seeing much opportunity. We could get in on the Yankees a little more heavily in the AL East, or on the Padres in the NL West, but the eROI on each of those is only 1%, and we’d rather favor the favorites in each of those two divisions since we’re already heavier on the Padres than the Dodgers and we’d be heavier on the Yankees than the Rays were we to bet the Yankees again.
So, it’s back to Atlanta, our standby this year. Things are looking the diciest they’ve looked for the best team in baseball, but the roster is too good and too deep for that to be concerning at this stage, especially with no one else in the NL East possessing a winning record entering tonight.
Pick: Atlanta to win –400. Medium confidence.
NLCS
We like the value here as well, and the Dodgers’ run is creating some opportunity on the team which is better than the Dodgers. Happy to take it.
Pick: Atlanta to win +275. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
As we said yesterday: There’s value on the Celtics right now, and with them one of our two holes (the other is the Lakers), we’ll happily jump on it.
Pick: Boston to win +100. Low confidence.
