Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,363 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 37–38 so far, down 4.38 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we went cold again. We pivoted a little last week, though, and we’ve made 1.96 units in the eight days since. In other words, we don’t know what direction these are headed right now.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
New York (AL) @ Minnesota
Chris Paddack’s been solid for the Twins this year, and his projections say he should be a tiny bit better. Normally, underperformance of projections makes us hold off, but it’s a tight board today, and we think the perceptions on Paddack could still be off, potentially starting further from projections than is normal because of how little he’s pitched since 2021. Also, Carlos Rodón is underperforming his own projections by more. We don’t feel comfortable with this, but we don’t feel comfortable with most MLB moneylines these days. All part of the process.
Pick: Minnesota to win +104. Low confidence. (Rodón and Paddack must start.)
World Series
The value’s small here, but the Braves are the most serious contender in the World Series portion of our portfolio, so we want to keep them clearly on the profitable side of the break-even line.
Pick: Atlanta to win +450. Medium confidence.
ALCS
This is a higher-value play. The Rays are only .500, but the AL has seen enough struggles that .500 is good enough to be within two games of playoff position. The Rays are a strong roster with great pitching. The latter part sometimes flies under the radar because the rotation is a moneyball collection of names, but pitching plays in October.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +2500. Medium confidence.
Western Conference (NBA)
We prefer the Timberwolves’ value here, but we have enough upside on the Thunder and enough doubt about the Thunder and Mavericks (because of their respective Core Scores) that this makes a lot of sense for our portfolio. This puts us in a position where the likeliest midway scenario in a Celtics/Nuggets Finals matchup, the halfway point between our Celtics upside and Nuggets downside, would be +1.04 units given the bets we’ve already placed. In Celtics vs. Thunder and Celtics vs. Wolves, it’s much better.
Pick: Denver to win +150. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
We’re adding a little bit more on the Canucks today, skeptical of the Oilers’ position as a favorite in a series they trail. We’re in a really rough spot in a hypothetical Stars/Oilers matchup (the Stars are currently a 2.5-unit loss for us in the Western Conference, the Oilers are currently an 8.0-unit loss), but that’s an ok risk for us to take in exchange for more Vancouver upside.
Pick: Vancouver to win +450. Low confidence.
