Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,412 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.5% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Texas @ San Francisco
On the season, Logan Webb has a 3.47 xERA and a 3.76 FIP against a 5.34 ERA. Over his career, the xERA’s higher, but still not at the level of his ERA. Fits the undervaluation profile, and shows up as such as we run the numbers.
Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
Chicago (NL) @ Cleveland
Shane Bieber is good. The Cubs are banged up. More likely than not that the Cubs cover here, but fairly close to 50/50, which gives this value.
Pick: Cleveland -1.5 (+115). Low confidence.
Baltimore @ New York (NL)
John Means was, of course, dominant in Seattle six days ago. He’s had plenty of time now to rest. But for as great as his season’s been, it’s only been seven starts, which do shape our overall impression of him but not by this much.
Pick: New York (NL) -1.5 (+155). Low confidence.
Oakland @ Boston
Is Ramón Laureano going to play? My impression is that he is. The numbers seem to indicate a market that thinks he’s going to play twice, though, which is, of course, impossible. What’s going on?
I don’t know if this is what’s happening, but I wonder if the opening line was set with the assumption Laureano would play, and people kept betting on it thinking it was splitting the difference on Laureano playing or not playing. In other words, I’m betting on people betting that the oddsmakers didn’t bet enough on Laureano’s probability of playing this baseball game.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (+155). Low confidence.
Miami @ Arizona
Man, these guys just keep playing each other.
Pablo López quietly has a 3.90 career FIP, and over his last eighteen starts (more than a third of his career starts, and the summation of his last two years), that number’s around 3.11. The 2.04 ERA this year’s probably not going to be sustained, but it’s also not a wildly lucky performance from him.
Pick: Miami to win -106. Low confidence.
