Whom:
Cubs vs. Cleveland
Where:
Cleveland
When:
5:10 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Temperatures around fifty degrees, wind blowing across from left to right (and slightly in) at ten to fifteen miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Shane Bieber
The Opponent:
The reigning unanimous American League Cy Young winner has fallen on hard times, with only a 2.98 ERA and only a 2.91 xERA and only a 2.59 FIP. He’s only striking out just over a batter and a half an inning, and he’s walking a career high almost one batter every three innings.
Piece of cake.
On the offensive side, Cleveland is 26th in wRC+, but by roster construction FanGraphs has their lineup as the eighth-most prolific in the majors, signifying something is going very wrong and that something may not go very wrong forever.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +170 to win and -190 to lose, so roughly a 35% chance of toppling the American League’s ace. The over/under’s at 6½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
We’re waiting on news about Jake Marisnick and Jason Heyward, but we don’t have anything yet. Accompanying roster moves may accompany that news.
Cubs Thoughts:
Bieber’s tough, and Zach Davies still isn’t at a level where you feel extraordinarily confident in his ability to win you a game tomorrow, so it’s a rough two-game draw. That said, a split’s a good goal here and a split’s the most likely outcome statistically, so maybe think of tonight as a free play.
Around the Division:
The Reds smoked the Pirates yesterday, 14-1.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. St. Louis: 21-14, 33.4%
2. Milwaukee: 19-16, 44.1%
T-3. Cincinnati: 16-16, 12.0%
T-3. Cubs: 17-17, 10.4%
5. Pittsburgh: 14-20, 0.1%
The Brewers and Cardinals start a three-game set tonight. Kwang Hyun Kim opposite Freddy Peralta in Milwaukee.
