Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,838 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo missed its under yesterday, sliding back narrowly into the red. Another one today, more futures (for those, we’re aiming to invest 100 units in total but we have another 100 set aside in case we need it), and MLB futures as well (520 units set to be invested over the regular season on those, with an additional 520 in reserve for October and hedging).
Los Angeles @ Edmonton
One of Gelo’s favorite postseason plays so far, the Oilers/Kings under has hit two of the three times we’ve bet it. That doesn’t actually mean much for tonight, but it’s a little confidence boost.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-116). Low confidence.
First Round: Edmonton vs. Los Angeles
This isn’t great probability, but it’s good value, and it does increase our overall first round profit probability by opening up more paths for us. These are long odds for the underdog in a 2-2 series.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +250. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
It’s still early in the playoffs, meaning there’s plenty of time for hedging if we need to hedge. In the meantime, we’re going to take this value while it’s in front of us. The series with the Blues is a bit of a tossup, but Gelo sees a lot of value on the winner, especially if it’s the Wild.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1600. Low confidence.
NL Central
We’re putting a lot on the Brewers in the AL Central these days, and there’s certainly risk to that. At the same time, though, they pair well with some of our more longshot approaches—like that in the NL West—and they provide some balance for our volatile AL Central assortment, where we have a lot on the Twins and a little on everyone else (except for the Tigers, thankfully). With the Milwaukee pitching staff deeper than last year, there’s reason to be pretty confident in these guys. Probably more confident than you can/should be in any other division favorite.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -300. Medium confidence.
