Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,237 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by early April, with college basketball futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
More college basketball futures today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus with the futures. First, though:
Missouri State @ Oklahoma
Missouri State’s a bit weak on defense, and in a game where there should be few offensive boards and turnovers, there should be a lot of shots and a lot of possessions.
Pick: Over 138.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Cleveland State @ Xavier
Xavier’s clearly in a rut, and they might fold, but their offensive efficiency is high enough and Cleveland State’s defensive efficiency is low enough that there’s value here.
Pick: Xavier -11 (-115). Medium confidence.
Indiana vs. Wyoming
Wyoming should be able to keep this close, mostly by getting to the free throw line.
Pick: Wyoming +4 (-105). Medium confidence.
And now, the futures:
NIT
Based on a few thousand simulations (started with KenPom but ran them hot, letting team rating change based on results within each simulation), taking everyone with an eROI greater than or equal to 25% and a probability of 1.0% or better.
Pick: North Texas to win +2000. Medium confidence.
Pick: BYU to win +2800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Utah State to win +3300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Mississippi State to win +3300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Washington State to win +3500. Medium confidence.
Pick: Santa Clara to win +55000. Low confidence.
Pick: Towson to win +10000. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Same as with the NIT, but went with the one with the best eROI. May go back tomorrow for more, with some going off the board as we went to publication.
Pick: Notre Dame to make Elite Eight +7000. Low confidence.
Pick: Chattanooga to make Elite Eight +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Colgate to make Elite Eight: 15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Boise State to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Michigan State to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: TCU to make Final Four +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: Colorado State to make Final Four +6000. Low confidence.
Pick: Davidson to make Final Four +6600. Low confidence.
Pick: Marquette to make Final Four +6600. Low confidence
Pick: South Dakota State to make Final Four +7000. Low confidence.
Pick: Wyoming to make Final Four +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +2800. Medium confidence.
Pick: Texas to win +10000. Low confidence.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +12000. Low confidence.
Pick: Virginia Tech to win +12500. Low confidence.
Pick: LSU to win +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Loyola to win +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: Alabama to win +15000. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego State to win +20000. Low confidence.
Pick: San Francisco to win +25000. Low confidence.
