Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,908 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo lost yesterday, but we hit our hedge, so we’re in fine shape on NHL futures. More of those today, plus tonight’s game and MLB action. For futures context: The NHL portfolio started with 100 units, with 100 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge. The MLB portfolio started with 520 units, with 520 more units in reserve in case we need them to hedge.
ALCS
The Yankees are surging, but the Blue Jays haven’t stopped their own surge. Back firmly into playoff expectations, they’ll be a force with which to be reckoned. We’ll happily stock up.
Pick: Toronto to win +500. Medium confidence.
World Series
Low value here, but positive value, and with the Mets a team we’re a little soft on overall, we’ll take it.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +750. Medium confidence.
New York Rangers @ Tampa Bay
Gelo likes the Rangers, Gelo likes the over, we profit if at least one of them hits. It’s been a rough two days, but this has generally been a productive approach for us over the postseason so far. Just need a little bit more suspect of goaltending than on Sunday.
Pick: New York Rangers to win +152. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+112). Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
What we’re concerned about here is the ratio between our deficit if the Avalanche win and our profit if the Eastern Conference champion wins, since if the ratio is greater than the Avalanche’s odds (for example, if the ratio is 3:1 and the Avalanche are at -200), we can do a straight hedge out of it, as long as we have the bankroll.
We aren’t going to have the bankroll to do that exactly.
What we’ll instead be doing, most likely, is placing single-game bets on the Avalanche in Games 1 and 2, riding the strong correlation between the results of those games and the eventual Stanley Cup champion. We’re still hashing out the specifics on this, and we aren’t yet into a spot where we can guarantee profitability (if we had 2,000 more units in reserve, we could, but we do not), but through this 45-unit investment (we didn’t list the bets out 29 and 16 times, respectively, but that’s how much we’re putting in), we raise the ratio for each matchup while leaving over 100 units in the bankroll, and by overweighting the Rangers, we raise our expected value even though the Lightning bet is technically a hedge (the Rangers bet has, per Gelo, an eROI of 19%, the Lightning bet’s eROI is -4%). We’ll likely be doing more of this over the next few days, though it would simplify things if the Rangers were to win tonight.
Here are the new scenarios, though to be transparent, the hedging should narrow these magnitudes:
| Winner | Loser | Final Net Units |
| Rangers | Avalanche | 136.18 |
| Lightning | Avalanche | 67.74 |
| Avalanche | Rangers | -84.57 |
| Avalanche | Lightning | -95.86 |
Pick: New York Rangers to win +375. Low confidence. x29
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +500. Low confidence. x16
