Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,436 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 50–55 so far, down 10.64 units. It’s been a terrible performance, one in which every sign of progress has been met with a swift comedown. That said, we’re 2–1 over the last two days.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re down 7.83 units so far, but we’re set to profit on the effort if the Celtics win the Finals.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 22.20 units so far, but as with the NBA portfolio, we’ll profit if our portfolio’s preferred champion—in this case, the Panthers—wins.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
Tampa Bay @ Miami
Minnesota @ New York (AL)
Baltimore @ Toronto
Detroit @ Texas
St. Louis @ Houston
San Diego @ Anaheim
Two years ago, we did a bunch of tests to see if a team’s “streak”—that column in the standings showing what streak they’re on—could provide an edge. We categorized it by day of the week, and what we found was that on Sundays, recent losers did well, and on Tuesdays, recent winners did well. This made some intuitive sense: Sunday is a getaway day. Bullpens are more used up, and teams are playing more backups. Tuesday is either Game 1 or Game 2 of the weeknight series. The better team is likelier to win. This logic isn’t exactly what the result signifies—the real significance is that bettors may be underrating recent results when examining Sunday and Tuesday lines—but whatever the reasoning, we found that it works, and we’ve had good results using it as a guideline this year on Tuesdays and Sundays.
We identified seven games today where one team has a better streak going than the other, that team’s starter or bulk reliever is performing in line with their projections, and that team’s opponent’s starter or bulk reliever is not outperforming expectations. Being down so bad, we kind of have to try something, and while we may need to win five of these to profit on the day, it’s not a bad crew.
Pick: Kansas City to win +108. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –130. Low confidence.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –175*. Low confidence.
Pick: Baltimore to win –157. Low confidence.
Pick: Detroit to win –103. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston to win –160. Low confidence.
Pick: Anaheim to win –114. Low confidence.
*Ober and Gil must start.
ALCS
We’re doubling up on this one again today, and it’s enough to make the Yankees a profitable ALCS outcome for us. Using the FanGraphs odds, we now profit in 62% of ALCS scenarios, break even in 6%, lose something in 30%, and lose that whole section of our portfolio in 2%.
Pick: New York to win +250. Medium confidence. x2
NBA Finals
Today’s update: Our portfolio is now effectively a 36.83-unit bet on the Celtics, one which pays only 4.66 units.
Pick: Boston to win –220. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Today’s update: Our portfolio is now effectively a 55.20-unit bet on the Panthers, one which pays only 2.13 units.
Pick: Florida to win –135. Low confidence.
