Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,004 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We finished the NBA futures campaign having made 5.55 units off our 75-unit investment, good for a 7% return over roughly two months. We’re expecting our final NHL number to be better, but we’re letting it ride for tonight. Go Knights.
Two markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 44–31, we’re up 7.08 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –116). April was great, May was bad, June has been good so far.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 108.92 units, or 10.5%.
Miami @ Seattle
As best I can figure out, the market is making a lot out of one recent start for each pitcher. For Cabrera, it’s the ten strikeouts in six innings against…the A’s. For Kirby, it’s either when the Pirates took him deep four times a few days before he went eight scoreless against the Yankees, or when the Padres chased him in the fourth of a game where his single-game opposing BABIP was .588.
We’re taking the long view with each guy. Cabrera’s good, but not special. Kirby is solid, with upside.
Pick: Seattle to win –144. Low confidence. (Cabrera and Kirby must start.)
AL West
The market is finally coming around on the idea that this year’s Mariners are not the Mariners of the last two years in terms of performance, even if the recipe is similar. Just because you’ve rolled a six once doesn’t mean you’re about to do it again.
In this case, though, the market has overcorrected. These are long, long odds in a division where the Astros are finding their footing, the Rangers are without Jacob deGrom, and the Angels are the Angels. We’ll take a flyer, for the value.
Pick: Seattle to win +2800. Medium confidence.
AL East
We’ll also take the value here, though it’s small and the payout is also small. To make ourselves comfortable taking shots in division markets, we have to accompany them by stacking a lot of these.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –400. Medium confidence.
