Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,221 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.4% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Texas vs. Indiana
Indiana certainly looked better than Texas yesterday, and might well be better than Texas. Right now, though, we just don’t have enough data to know. Texas has some good pieces, and while their performance against Davidson wasn’t great, it also wasn’t a dud. On paper, this is a tossup, with a potential lean towards the Longhorns.
Pick: Texas +2 (-110). Low confidence.
USC vs. BYU
Matt Haarms is a good player who should help BYU. But BYU just doesn’t have a whole lot left from last year. This is not the team that was poised for perhaps a five-seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. This one will have achieved a lot if they make the NIT.
On the other side, USC opened the season poorly (it took them overtime to escape Cal Baptist), but they have enough talent to put some shocks into the Pac-12. They might spend the year all over the place, but their median performance should, from what we know now, be a few points better than that of BYU.
Pick: USC +3.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Bryant @ New Hampshire
Bryant put a scare into Syracuse.
Don’t put too much stock into that.
For one thing, Syracuse isn’t great. For another, it was just one game. And for a third, New Hampshire is a solid low-major, returning pretty much everyone from last year’s team that challenged for the behind-Vermont spot in the A-East. Playing at home, they’re one of the best picks on today’s board.
Pick: New Hampshire -3 (-110). Low confidence.
