Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy who knows numbers. He’d say that you shouldn’t read too much into it, since the sample size is only 160 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), but his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
There are more favorable lines than usual today, and those that are favorable are more favorable than usual. With only four picks, this doesn’t mean much, but it’s encouraging.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- Fangraphs is great.
Since few people are clicking on these right now, I’m going to do some experimenting and try not explaining every pick (because the justifications tend to be the same, or at least very similar, and it allows me to fiddle with the methodology without getting too in the weeds about it) and instead just put in a few notes about each game.
Washington @ Philadelphia
Stephen Strasburg seems underappreciated. Perhaps it’s his low innings totals, which is a justifiable complaint, but when he pitches, the man is one of baseball’s best.
That isn’t to say Aaron Nola is not one of baseball’s best. His young career has been phenomenal so far.
But Strasburg’s been doing it longer.
Pick: Washington to win +132. Low confidence.
Oakland @ Baltimore
John Means is making his first career start tonight, taking the mound for the Orioles. Chris Davis is, as you may have heard, mired in futility. The Orioles are trying to avoid another historic loss total, and so far, it’s going well enough. Baltimore is in a weird place right now.
The A’s are, looking ahead, in the third tier of wild card contenders in the AL (After the Red Sox/Yankees, the Rays and Twins are in the thick of things, with the A’s, Mariners, and Angels occupying that aforementioned third tier). Their bullpen is strong again, with Blake Treinen doing his usual thing and strong early contributions from Lou Trivino, Liam Hendriks, and J.B. Wendelken. There’s a ways to go, and the piecemeal rotation provokes some breath-holding, but it could be another fun summer in Oakland.
Pick: Baltimore to win +157. Low confidence.
Minnesota @ New York (NL)
The Twins lineup is a hodgepodge of guys you’re familiar with but either didn’t realize were on the Twins (Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Tyler Austin), guys you wouldn’t miss if they dropped out of the league (Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Ehire Adrianza, Jake Cave, the Jason Castro/Mitch Garver combined entity), guys you’re prepared to recognize as great players but not right now (Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario), and Willians Astudillo.
It looks kind of like a roster in a video game that you’ve simulated ahead four seasons. Everyone’s hit free agency and randomly shuffled around, the guys who haven’t are just sitting there being Twins, and Willians Astudillo is there.
Opposing them is Jacob deGrom, who FIP indicates has actually pitched better in his first two starts than his 0.00 ERA implies.
Pick: Minnesota to win +210. Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Houston
I admit that I lost track of which Yankees are injured right now. Aaron Judge is still there, though, Gary Sanchez is off to a great start, and the middle infield combination of Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu has been remarkably effective in its small sample size.
All of which further reinforces that Brian Cashman is very good at his job. He will look even better at his job if Jonathan Loaisiga breaks out this year.
The Astros, of course, remain the Astros, and are at any moment just minutes away from rattling off a 30-game win streak.
The machines roll along.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +180. Low confidence.
