Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,834 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
Due to some time constraints, we’re taking the day off from NBA and NHL futures. Each of those portfolios are in a good spot, so we’re comfortable letting them ride for a night. We’ll be picking them up tomorrow.
That makes today a baseball day. Here’s the context.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 18–8, we’re up 8.45 units, we’re up 33% (the average line on our winners has been –109). That 33% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been an encouraging few weeks. Can we do 5% from here? 10%? If we do, from here, we could potentially end up with a +12% or +13% return on the season, and that’s before considering futures, where we usually win.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
Seattle @ Philadelphia
Bailey Falter isn’t outstanding, but he’s been solid so far this year, and while Marco Gonzales is having a great year to date, the Mariners just aren’t very good. They’re not. They had a great run to end the year last year, but the effect of that has been to mask a lot of very real flaws. We’ve seen it in the futures markets, and we’re seeing it here. We like the Phillies to extend their win streak and ours.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –122. Low confidence. (Gonzales and Falter must start.)
NL Central
These odds are partly available because of a dramatic shortening in the Cubs odds, something which seems to neglect not only the state of their roster on paper but what they’ve done on the field in three of the last four games. The Cardinals are not and should not be the NL Central favorites, but we’re getting a good opportunity here.
Pick: St. Louis to win +325. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Similarly, the Giants just won three games in a row in a good way, and it isn’t showing up here. They’re a longshot, but the ingredients are there, and with the Dodgers worse than markets seem to want to acknowledge, their path isn’t as bad as it might appear.
Pick: San Francisco to win +3500. Medium confidence.
