Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,312 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus futures across all three of the active Big Four leagues.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 20–19 so far, up 0.81 units. We had a bad start, but we’ve been hot over the last week and a half.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re playing just one future per day.
Los Angeles @ Washington
We’re a little concerned here by how hard Patrick Corbin’s allowed opponents to hit the ball, but his FIP is fine and James Paxton has struggled massively with control over his first three starts. He’s walked fourteen batters in sixteen innings. That’s going to bite him eventually.
Pick: Washington to win +195. Low confidence. (Paxton and Corbin must start.)
Oakland @ NY Yankees
We’re a little concerned here by how well Marcus Stroman’s been pitching, but his peripherals aren’t as good as his ERA, and Paul Blackburn’s been a rock star for the A’s. Blackburn also suffers from worse peripherals than his ERA, but his peripherals are really, really good, and it’s easy to see why the A’s might be undervalued.
Pick: Oakland to win +186. Low confidence. (Blackburn and Stroman must start.)
Houston @ Chicago (NL)
In our non-longshot this evening (still an underdog, though), we like what we’re seeing from Jordan Wicks, and while JP France should regress in a positive direction, he’s still not someone to fully trust right now. Give us the Cubs to start the series with a win.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +100. Low confidence. (France and Wicks must start.)
World Series
We’ve been in a lot on Seattle so far this year, and the short version is that their roster is solid, they’re performing well so far, the Astros have struggled enough that it’s meaningful, and the Rangers’ roster is probably overvalued. This gives us something on the Mariners in all three markets we bet: Division, Pennant, World Series. We’ve filled our Mariners bingo card.
Pick: Seattle to win +2500. Medium confidence.
NLCS
We’re also filling our Padres bingo card, hitting the NLCS button on them today. The Padres are in a bit of organizational turnover, but they’re better on paper than the Giants and they aren’t far off the Diamondbacks. They’re also above .500 in the early going, and the three teams immediately ahead of them—the Mets, Pirates, and Reds—are all more deserving of skepticism than San Diego is. Every now and then we see this with a team: The hype dies down, the talent remains, and the results materialize. We’ll take a flyer on that with these guys, especially at 30-to-1.
Pick: San Diego to win +3000. Medium confidence.
First Round: LA Clippers vs. Dallas
The market’s got a wide range on this one. You might even be able to find some arbitrage. We’re not going that far, but we like the Mavs. They’re healthier and they were the original series favorites. Win tonight, and they should be in a comfortable spot heading home to Texas.
Pick: Dallas to win +140. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
It’s very possible I’m missing something here, but what I’m seeing is that the Predators are nearly favored tonight, Thatcher Demko’s out for Vancouver, and Nashville’s still got the longest odds to win the West? Even worse than LA’s? This seems wrong. We’re going to take a shot.
Pick: Nashville to win +2000. Low confidence.
