Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,826 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
We have four markets today. Here’s the context on each.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
On single game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 13–6, we’re up 6.10 units, we’re up 32% (the average line on our winners has been -107). That 32% number is unlikely to be sustained, but it’s been a nice few weeks.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge.
AL East
We’re doubling up on this one, and here’s the deal with that. Hopefully it can help explain some of our approach.
We have two AL East plays that precede today’s. One’s on the Red Sox at 18-to-1. The other’s on the Rays at +170. Each was a medium confidence pick, as all of our MLB futures are. That put our net at +34 units in scenarios where the Red Sox win and +1.4 units in scenarios where the Rays win. Any additional AL East bet, then, pushes the Rays scenario into unprofitable territory.
Why does this lead to us doubling down on the Yankees? Well, if we just put one on the Yankees, the scenarios would change to +32 with a Red Sox win, +1.5 with a Yankees win, and –0.6 with a Rays win. We could add another play on the Rays—they’re flashing positive value today as well—but doing that would flip the Yankees to –0.5. In other words, unless we were to place an extra future today, we were going to have one of our teams unprofitable in the AL East. We’d rather that be the Rays than the Yankees not because we think the Yankees are likelier to win, but because 1) the Yankees odds offer higher value today, making them a better play in a vacuum and 2) there’s more disparity in Yankees odds across books, leading us to believe this line might vanish by tomorrow.
This leaves us in a place were the Red Sox are a +30 scenario, the Yankees are a +7 scenario, and the Rays are a –2.6 scenario. Expect action from us on the Rays soon, because—to tie this back to explaining some of our approach—the way we like to do futures is to amass as many profitable paths as possible while only betting positive-value plays. This often leaves us with a few high-payout paths, a lot of low-payout paths, and a few very bad paths out of which we hedge when necessary via our high-payout paths’ leverage. At least, that’s how it’s mostly gone these last four years.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +275. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +275. Medium confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati
Nick Lodolo was supposed to be a big deal last year, but when he missed time with injury, the hype went unrewarded.
Or did it?
Lodolo finished the year with 103 innings pitched and all four of his ERA/xERA/FIP/xFIP beneath 4.00. He’s started this season even better, with a league-leading 1.6 strikeouts per inning over three starts and 17 innings of work. Taj Bradley is exciting—like Lodolo was last year, he’s a highly-touted prospect, and he’s pitching in a franchise known for getting a lot out of young arms—but Lodolo is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and with the wind blowing out a little bit tonight in Cincinnati, Bradley’s propensity to let the ball get in the air could work out for us.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +116. Low confidence. (Bradley and Lodolo must start.)
First Round: Phoenix vs. LA Clippers
Something we’ve heard a lot the last week or so is how the Suns were undefeated this year with Kevin Durant in the starting lineup. That’s good, and it makes sense—Durant is, controversial opinion I know, quite good at basketball—but it was only eight games, and part of the deal with the NBA is that regular season games don’t matter very much.
I don’t think that’s what’s shifting this line, but it seems indicative of some broader groupthink around Phoenix, especially with Paul George out for the Clippers. The Suns are good. They’re very good. They’re deservedly still the series favorite, even down 1–0 and sitting without home-court advantage for at least the next few days. But this line’s a little long, and we’ll take it, hoping on the Clippers to steal one and give us a whole lot of leverage heading into Game 3.
Pick: LA Clippers to win +175. Low confidence.
First Round: Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
This is a short-odds bet with a heavy level of anxiety based on the Leafs’ recent history as a franchise. That’s not a fun bet to place. Still, it’s close to the best value available today, per Gelo, and what better value there is either comes via the Kings, on whom we placed a bet yesterday, or longshots, which we enjoy but prefer in conjunction with plays like this. Just get through the first round, Leafs. That’s all we ask.
Pick: Toronto to win -170. Low confidence.
