We did it. We broke the MLB losing streak. Behind the Chicago White Sox, of all teams.
We’ve got another MLB moneyline today, plus a Kentucky Derby pick and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. Let’s get to it.
Washington at Cincinnati
This violates a couple of our guidelines. Nick Lodolo’s outperformed his projections so far this year, and rain’s in the mix. With Trevor Williams also outperforming his projections so far, though (his ERA is misleading—his xERA and FIP are both better), we’re willing to give it a look in the absence of better options. And with no other red flags, that rain could turn into an asset, potentially springing a mid-game delay on Lodolo if we time it up right. It isn’t the basis for this pick—we think the value’s good, even if we’d prefer a game with a colder opposing starter—but it doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Washington to win +166. 15.00 units to win 24.90. Williams and Lodolo must start.
Kentucky Derby
Speaking of that rain: Will a big horse like Citizen Bull thrive in the muck? Will Final Gambit, a wildcard, turn out to be great on an unknown surface? We don’t know enough about horse racing to take the Derby too seriously. But in the spirit of the sport, we might as well take a couple longshots. Especially when our overall numbers aren’t good enough to claim we’re doing this for anything but fun.
Pick: Final Gambit to win +1800. 10.00 units to win 180.00.
Pick: Citizen Bull to win +2000. 10.00 units to win 200.00.
Stanley Cup
Usually, we’d bet on either the Stars or the Avalanche today, since they’re the ones playing tonight. What we’re really trying to do with that approach, though—as we’ve said a couple times—is grab good odds before they change. Our model sees value on the Golden Knights right now, and if the Stars win, I’m afraid that could shift.
The really weird thing with the Knights’ odds is that the Oilers are available at 5-to-1 even though the Knights and Oilers are roughly a tossup in the second round. Some of this is home ice factors, but a lot of it is a weird fixation on the Oilers on the part of bettors. When odds don’t line up round to round, futures markets are out of whack and oddsmakers are covering their bases. We think that opens up opportunity on VGK.
Pick: Las Vegas to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
Game 7: LA Clippers at Denver
Game 7: Golden State at Houston
Two today rather than just the one.
We’ve lost futures on all four complete first round NBA series, and while one of those was good (we had the Lakers, but we have the Timberwolves at 20-to-1 to win the West), it’s a bad position to occupy overall. It could get worse for us from here, too. We entered today with series futures already out there on both the Clippers and the Warriors.
The upside there is that each team is nearly 50/50 to win their series, and if both win, we’ll end up profiting on the first round. We also tend to think that at least the Warriors should be favored in their Game 7, and that there’s value on the Clippers, who’ve generally looked like the better team than the Nuggets.
The downside is that we might enter the second round having already lost 22 of our 200 NBA futures units, and that as we’ve been saying, it’s hard to make up ground on the NBA.
Pick: LA Clippers to win +114. 2.00 units to win 2.28.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –178.17 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 315 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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