Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,522 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 871 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures, college football futures, NFL futures. Unit context: We started the MLB season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-days-a-week cadence, plus another 520 available in reserve for hedges. We started the NFL season with 50 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-week, once-a-week cadence, plus another 50 available in reserve for hedges. We started the college football season with 60 units available to bet on our four-bets-a-week, once-a-week cadence, plus another 60 available in reserve for hedges.
ACC
We’ve written this elsewhere, but if anyone came away from Clemson’s win over Wake Forest impressed with the Tigers…I’m not sure where you’re getting that. This team lacks last year’s defense, and while the offense has improved, it’s still far from what it once was. So, Florida State goes in with our Pitt ACC future and our NC State playoff future as a fade on Dabo Swinney winning the Atlantic.
UNC, on the other hand, is a fine team in a bad division, and there’s often value available on those.
Pick: Florida State to win +900. Low confidence.
Pick: North Carolina to win +1800. Low confidence.
Big 12
The Cyclones took it on the chin from Baylor, and their path consequently closes significantly. With Oklahoma losing, though, this shifts from a one-team-vs.-the-field race to an open race, and having just one loss in an open race isn’t devastating. These odds should be long, but at this length, they’re hard to pass up.
Pick: Iowa State to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pac-12
We’ve got a lot of longshots in our portfolio—even with this, only a quarter of our futures are on favorites—and Movelor views Utah as the third-likeliest conference champion in the country, trailing only Cincinnati and Georgia. They’ve got Oregon State next, and Oregon State’s clearly dangerous, but Utah’s a good team playing in a mediocre conference, and some books are beginning to slide on USC, signaling a broader market correction.
Pick: Utah to win +240. Low confidence.
Super Bowl
The Ravens are in a tight spot, tied with the Browns atop the AFC North, and it may get worse. They host the Bills this week before hosting the Bengals next week, and the rest of their month includes trips to New York (to play the Giants) and Tampa Bay around a visit from Cleveland. Looking at all of this, though, it’s hard to see it sorting out any way other than Baltimore sitting as the AFC North favorite, and that should be enough to get them a 3-seed when this is all said and done. The market seems to believe in the Dolphins, and yet it’s punishing the Ravens for losing to them? It was an ugly loss, but there’s a contradiction there.
Pick: Baltimore to win +1800. Low confidence.
NFC
The Cowboys are poised to survive Dak Prescott’s absence, and while they shouldn’t be expected to win the NFC East, it’s hard to pick out another potential wild card team as potent as these guys. They’re a good team yet again. We’ll add them to our mix.
Pick: Dallas to win +1800. Low confidence.
NLCS
On the baseball side, we’re doubling up on the Mets again, with New York only needing to avoid being swept this weekend in Atlanta to exit the series with the tiebreaker-inclusive division lead. They’re close to the bye, and if they get it, markets will either have to pivot to naming them the NL favorite, allow arbitrage between LDS and LCS futures, or commit to some wonky LDS odds. We’ll get ‘em while we can.
Pick: New York to win +275. Medium confidence.
Pick: New York to win +275. Medium confidence.
