Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,438 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% across 790 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
MLB futures, college football futures, NFL futures. Unit context: We started the MLB season with 520 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-day, five-days-a-week cadence, plus another 520 available in reserve for hedges. We started the NFL season with 50 units available to bet on our two-bets-a-week, once-a-week cadence, plus another 50 available in reserve for hedges. We started the college football season with 60 units available to bet on our four-bets-a-week, once-a-week cadence, plus another 60 available in reserve for hedges.
College Football Playoff
We’re using our college football model for this and the other college football futures, and it actually doesn’t love Oklahoma. That said, it sees this as a positive-expected-value play, and with the market implication that Oklahoma’s three times as likely to win the Big 12 as it is to make the playoff, something’s off. Oklahoma’s one of the six teams clearly in focus for the four spots. Also, they get Bedlam at home this year.
Our model does love NC State’s chances, and we like the angle this gives us for a potential hedge next weekend when the Wolfpack goes to Clemson. Those two aren’t in some binary race for one spot, but if the Clemson odds are even as short as -500, we could hedge our way into either washing this out or having an effective six units on 5-0 NC State at 4.33-to-1 (yes, we think they’ll beat UConn on Saturday).
Pick: Oklahoma to make playoff +450. Low confidence.
Pick: NC State to make playoff +2500. Low confidence.
Big Ten
We don’t have a ton of faith in the Gophers, though our model does think they’re a good team. We do like their schedule a lot, as they dodge both Michigan and Ohio State. Even if they lose on Saturday in East Lansing (they’re narrowly favored at the moment), the Big Ten West has a way of bringing value back around.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2000. Low confidence.
SEC
The value here is good. We don’t know Mississippi’s ceiling, and they get both Kentucky and Alabama at home. They do play Texas A&M and Arkansas on the road, but those and the Alabama game are part of a four-week stretch that doesn’t begin until the end of October. Attrition should happen elsewhere, we like their chances in Oxford against the Cats in two weeks, we expect these odds to shorten and others to lengthen and some cornering to become an option.
Pick: Mississippi to win +6600. Low confidence.
AFC South
Let’s go through the AFC South quickly:
The Texans are quarterbacked by Davis Mills.
The Colts have tied the Texans and been shut out by the Jaguars.
The Titans just lost by 34 after losing to the Giants Week 1.
I don’t care how good the Bills are. 34 points is a lot. The Jaguars might not be good, but I’d be tempted to name them the favorite. At these odds? There’s value.
Pick: Jacksonville to win +300. Low confidence.
NFC West
I would not say the Cardinals are the favorite in the NFC West, but these guys won eleven games last year and aren’t all that different of a team. Every NFC West team has potential, but can you remember a defending champion who didn’t undergo major change and looks as susceptible as the Rams? This is looking valuable as well.
Pick: Arizona to win +450. Low confidence.
NLCS
We continue to stock up on the Mets, with today’s coming in the pennant market because it affords us more value. We may not get to the point where they alone hold enough upside to wipe out our all-time overall losses, but we also might, and the point is that value is available on these guys.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +300. Medium confidence.
ALCS
We’ve been quiet on the Mariners lately, but we return to them today to boost their respective upside closer to full loss absolution for us. Here are the eight teams who flashed positive value today in either the pennant market or the World Series market, plus what we net if they win the World Series and the other pennant market breaks even:
- Tampa Bay: 376.0 units
- Milwaukee: 353.5
- San Diego: 330
- Toronto: 320
- Philadelphia: 248
- Atlanta: 217
- Seattle: 204
- New York (NL): 135
These do outweigh our potential losses on the Yankees, Astros, Guardians, Dodgers, and Cardinals, but the fact we have the Dodgers in that list is admittedly scary. It’s looking like the Cardinals’ and Guardians’ Wild Card Series are going to be the keys for us, as we hope to have at least five of these high-upside teams alive when the Division Series begins. Part of why five would be nice is it would guarantee us to have two of those in the same LDS, locking in a high-upside option against which we can hedge in the LCS round, but that’s getting a little ahead of ourselves. Value can and will change, so we may have the opportunity to toss someone else into this mix, and with so much specific upside on the teams at the top of that list (at present, we’re only roughly 218 units away from being back even), we may have some great opportunities to hedge as early as when the final playoff brackets are set.
Pick: Seattle to win +900. Medium confidence.
