Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,796 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% across 1,126 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Should the Phillies win the World Series, we’ll be profitable again when that happens. Should the Astros win, we’ll have to wait until Election Day or later.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Another night of the World Series, and here’s where our MLB Futures portfolio stands: We started the season with 1,040 units available. We’ve so far profited 12.84 units. We have 670.84 units in our bankroll. Before the following picks are placed, we’re in a scenario where we’ll profit by an additional 255.30 units should the Phillies win it all, and lose an additional 3.58 units should the Astros win it all.
World Series (Hedge)
We continue what we’ve been doing, which is slowly hedging our way to a spot where we retain substantial upside should the Phillies win (it’s down to 243.30 units, after this play) while lessening our downside should the Astros win (we now actually make an additional 3.08 units if that happens). Twelve units, go Phillies, see you tomorrow or Saturday for the next round of this. We’ll make a minimum of a 1.5% return this year on our MLB futures bankroll, and our max is down to 23%.
Pick: Houston to win -180. Medium confidence. x6
