Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,821 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo continues to perform well for us, hitting on both its moneyline and its total yesterday (sweating out an under in an eventual 6-0 hockey game is a strange dynamic). More from it today, more MLB futures. For those scaling at home, we began with 520 units set aside to be bet in the regular season on baseball (with 520 more in reserve for hedging) and 100 units set aside for NHL futures (with 100 available for hedging there as well).
World Series
Solid value on these, and they buy us a little space from the break-even line with both the Yankees and the Astros. We have ten profitable World Series teams, with FanGraphs giving us over a 70% chance of profiting in the market. Those numbers might drop soon—the Mets are slipping towards unprofitability as we add more bets, and there isn’t value on the Mets right now—but we’re in a solid place. The Dodgers remain our only concerning hole, and that’s a hole out of which we can hedge (as would be the hypothetical Mets one, which is still a ways away anyway). Only early May, but we’re sitting on a good foundation.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Pick: Houston to win +1200. Medium confidence.
Pittsburgh @ New York Rangers
As with Tuesday, Gelo likes the over between the Penguins and Rangers. It only took two periods last time.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-125). Low confidence.
Nashville @ Colorado
Gelo’s lone miss so far in these bets this postseason was Tuesday’s on the Predators to win. Clearly, it disagrees with the market, even as they both adjust. We don’t love it, but there’s upside there, and we aren’t here to make judgment calls. We’re here to test a model, and we will do that with diligence until either the playoffs end or it becomes a clear bad idea.
Pick: Nashville to win +310. Low confidence.
First Round: Florida vs. Washington
There’s an assumption baked into this line that Florida wins tonight, and even if they do (which is likely but not guaranteed), that neglects the fact that the Capitals will, at least briefly, hold home-ice advantage. The Caps are valuable here and in the Eastern Conference market. They’re the most valuable here.
Pick: Washington to win +165. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup
Gelo’s newest Stanley Cup favorite is the Hurricanes, making it two days for the Panthers as the favorite, one day for the Avalanche, and now one day for the Canes (who might hold it tomorrow even if the Avalanche win, given that’s so likely). They’re the only team presenting any value on whom we haven’t placed a future yet, and while the value isn’t outrageous, this gives us a very good probability of having at least three teams alive in the second round, and a pretty good probability of having at least two teams in the conference finals. Very early in the process, but as with baseball, we’re laying the foundation, and it’s good to have a foundation that can handle a Hurricane.
Pick: Carolina to win +650. Low confidence.
